{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ef86c44-1062-4721-8d94-808f32da12fe", "symbol": "MBWM", "name": "Mercantile Bank Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.355, "architecture_energy": 67.557, "architecture_maturity": 43.356, "architecture_confidence": 81.968, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 74.97, "upward_expansion": 90.87, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 13.65, "downward_expansion": 12.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.462667, 58.258909, 55.933035, 54.58383 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 60.7, "trend_reference": 53.154836, "distance_from_trend": 0.141947, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.616863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.36125, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126352, "excess_performance": -0.061101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141947, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063613, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152114, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.885514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 865602, "relative_activity": 1.371414, "balance": 3.885514, "dry_up": 1.20201, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054976, "annualized_volatility": 0.213217, "from_high_reference": -0.027088, "from_low_reference": 0.453232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.154836, "fair_value_reference": 42.616863, "structural_low": 47.945455, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.000189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031556, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.091063, "worst_return": -0.15178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.006236, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041861, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.164216, "worst_return": -0.260634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034368, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069543, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.151905, "worst_return": -0.250416, "sufficient": true }, { 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42.254682, "relative_strength": 8.790604, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.340489, "energy": 69.326414, "activity_lines": [ 57.831333, 56.606525, 54.59141, 53.568178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.08, "volume": 621824, "typical_volume": 630911.3, "trend": 52.738408, "fair_value": 42.431904, "relative_strength": 10.86719, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.228195, "energy": 66.337457, "activity_lines": [ 58.643333, 57.451473, 55.257762, 54.070179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.7, "volume": 865602, "typical_volume": 631174.95, "trend": 53.154836, "fair_value": 42.616863, "relative_strength": 6.36125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.355087, "energy": 67.556582, "activity_lines": [ 59.462667, 58.258909, 55.933035, 54.58383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }