{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3efc9467-ff52-44f0-a7ba-bf6afa65e100", "symbol": "MTUS", "name": "Metallus, Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.631, "architecture_energy": 63.225, "architecture_maturity": 32.493, "architecture_confidence": 86.526, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 67.15, "upward_expansion": 86.14, "deceleration": 46.09, "rotation_down": 14.79, "downward_expansion": 15.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.637333, 20.024182, 19.55681, 19.031161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.67, "trend_reference": 18.743, "distance_from_trend": 0.156165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.953333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207018, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.439122, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017371, "excess_performance": -0.108254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156165, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183178, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.074391, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096622, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.273793, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2674527, "relative_activity": 1.596367, "balance": 2.273793, "dry_up": 1.31271, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082549, "annualized_volatility": 0.486266, "from_high_reference": -0.040301, "from_low_reference": 0.527132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.743, "fair_value_reference": 17.953333, "structural_low": 14.19, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.011446, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.009761, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.314113, "worst_return": -0.224554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.036094, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.054195, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.337769, "worst_return": -0.274107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105159, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.013202, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.182353, "worst_return": -0.111894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 17.959679, "relative_strength": 9.262894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.55331, "energy": 29.977306, "activity_lines": [ 19.632, 19.537091, 19.099095, 18.738323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.12, "volume": 2097843, "typical_volume": 1784489.45, "trend": 18.664333, "fair_value": 17.955641, "relative_strength": 3.510122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.345453, "energy": 42.333067, "activity_lines": [ 19.882667, 19.648909, 19.267095, 18.837247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.67, "volume": 2674527, "typical_volume": 1675383.65, "trend": 18.743, "fair_value": 17.953333, "relative_strength": 7.439122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.6306, "energy": 63.225111, "activity_lines": [ 20.637333, 20.024182, 19.55681, 19.031161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }