{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f081bc7-fee5-4a26-9dce-6ea183dfcebe", "symbol": "000990", "name": "Chengzhi Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.314, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.256, "architecture_energy": 9.116, "architecture_maturity": 16.217, "architecture_confidence": 65.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.85, "rotation_up": 32.96, "upward_expansion": 20.12, "deceleration": 48.67, "rotation_down": 19.19, "downward_expansion": 29.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.510476, 6.400519, 6.732857, 6.837419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.73, "trend_reference": 6.811238, "distance_from_trend": -0.011927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.704569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.77559, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029727, "excess_performance": 0.022327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179756, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047756, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.579564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237018307, "relative_activity": 0.678214, "balance": 0.579564, "dry_up": 0.932845, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097938, "annualized_volatility": 0.514362, "from_high_reference": -0.297914, "from_low_reference": 0.321459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.811238, "fair_value_reference": 5.704569, "structural_low": 5.714285, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039283, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.023029, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.091896, "worst_return": -0.123653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025365, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.020473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029851, "worst_return": -0.081608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.050107, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019808, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041992, "worst_return": -0.228916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018944, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.548677, "energy": 25.062737, "activity_lines": [ 6.279047, 6.384415, 6.890102, 6.883932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.357142, "volume": 358718369, "typical_volume": 388287968.25, "trend": 6.751904, "fair_value": 5.692009, "relative_strength": 2.544501, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.442735, "energy": 22.930813, "activity_lines": [ 6.324285, 6.337012, 6.821666, 6.859831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.45, "volume": 244453088, "typical_volume": 374280090.45, "trend": 6.775476, "fair_value": 5.697866, "relative_strength": 5.667292, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.147519, "energy": 15.858502, "activity_lines": [ 6.388571, 6.336363, 6.762176, 6.840353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.73, "volume": 237018307, "typical_volume": 349474471.8, "trend": 6.811238, "fair_value": 5.704569, "relative_strength": 4.77559, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.256463, "energy": 9.115709, "activity_lines": [ 6.510476, 6.400519, 6.732857, 6.837419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }