{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f0a478c-4883-4bb4-b5e5-b00cce446798", "symbol": "002362", "name": "Hanwang Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.248, "architecture_energy": 49.989, "architecture_maturity": 94.247, "architecture_confidence": 93.067, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.72, "rotation_up": 22.25, "upward_expansion": 7.25, "deceleration": 59.02, "rotation_down": 56.28, "downward_expansion": 80.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.148667, 15.358727, 16.267571, 17.167183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.93, "trend_reference": 18.574333, "distance_from_trend": -0.142365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.964359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.700958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.268931, "excess_performance": -0.27633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039921, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.386952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29909531, "relative_activity": 1.647368, "balance": 0.386952, "dry_up": 1.184166, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095273, "annualized_volatility": 0.408413, "from_high_reference": -0.442422, "from_low_reference": 0.161079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.574333, "fair_value_reference": 20.964359, "structural_low": 13.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.021462, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.017504, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.366933, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.111159, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0211, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.496246, "worst_return": -0.167464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.115766, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.025264, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.849147, "worst_return": -0.299043, 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0.049048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 15.132, 15.902545, 16.941429, 17.913011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.01, "volume": 15375023, "typical_volume": 17645386.45, "trend": 18.949, "fair_value": 21.073269, "relative_strength": -34.085498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.139363, "energy": 81.775665, "activity_lines": [ 14.642, 15.454364, 16.583143, 17.579677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.39, "volume": 20830287, "typical_volume": 17693399.15, "trend": 18.764667, "fair_value": 21.016923, "relative_strength": -25.51146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.016232, "energy": 57.836511, "activity_lines": [ 14.818, 15.335091, 16.387857, 17.350065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.93, "volume": 29909531, "typical_volume": 18155947.8, "trend": 18.574333, "fair_value": 20.964359, "relative_strength": -25.700958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.247626, "energy": 49.98931, "activity_lines": [ 15.148667, 15.358727, 16.267571, 17.167183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }