{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f157621-2f2c-4d7e-b866-72606a1a1ac1", "symbol": "000401", "name": "BBMG Jidong Cement Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.908, "architecture_energy": 50.819, "architecture_maturity": 94.028, "architecture_confidence": 70.895, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 27.56, "upward_expansion": 21.21, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 47.37, "downward_expansion": 73.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.587333, 3.582545, 3.761269, 3.997223 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.58, "trend_reference": 4.276439, "distance_from_trend": -0.162855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.99174, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.282815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.743097, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.26393, "excess_performance": -0.27133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06432, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.282815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046217, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26393, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44874317, "relative_activity": 0.850776, "balance": 0.508906, "dry_up": 0.832351, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05901, "annualized_volatility": 0.250641, "from_high_reference": -0.317289, "from_low_reference": 0.065476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.276439, "fair_value_reference": 4.99174, "structural_low": 3.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.008412, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017892, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.273972, "worst_return": -0.225455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.045931, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.006598, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.344578, "worst_return": -0.239927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.093458, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.066048, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.123318, "worst_return": -0.282958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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64.776147, "activity_lines": [ 3.532667, 3.603623, 3.850052, 4.086492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.66, "volume": 36692919, "typical_volume": 56545158.7, "trend": 4.300384, "fair_value": 5.014825, "relative_strength": -17.638592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.812066, "energy": 60.724754, "activity_lines": [ 3.582, 3.598364, 3.80621, 4.0437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.58, "volume": 44874317, "typical_volume": 52745155.4, "trend": 4.276439, "fair_value": 4.99174, "relative_strength": -22.743097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.908089, "energy": 50.819331, "activity_lines": [ 3.587333, 3.582545, 3.761269, 3.997223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }