{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f2abea7-2c42-4177-96fa-53bef5eab4ee", "symbol": "VEFAB", "name": "VEF AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.907, "architecture_energy": 39.891, "architecture_maturity": 67.023, "architecture_confidence": 84.958, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.5, "rotation_up": 22.7, "upward_expansion": 5.17, "deceleration": 56.1, "rotation_down": 48.08, "downward_expansion": 76.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.7708, 1.779127, 1.836557, 1.888886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.812, "trend_reference": 1.958067, "distance_from_trend": -0.074597, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.05541, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.160354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10297, "excess_performance": -0.164465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074597, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118424, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10297, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.512523, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3188697, "relative_activity": 0.647885, "balance": 1.512523, "dry_up": 0.760978, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068772, "annualized_volatility": 0.285697, "from_high_reference": -0.2752, "from_low_reference": 0.082437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.958067, "fair_value_reference": 2.05541, "structural_low": 1.674, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029112, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": -0.069307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.086874, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.092967, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.348651, "worst_return": -0.047497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.178815, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.194984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187812, "worst_return": 0.167007, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076555, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173568, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092308, "active": false }, { 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1.838909, 1.898667, 1.947699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.77, "volume": 3423742, "typical_volume": 5265720.1, "trend": 1.999367, "fair_value": 2.071, "relative_strength": -21.596432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.576986, "energy": 64.009943, "activity_lines": [ 1.7844, 1.821982, 1.881138, 1.932009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.73, "volume": 4434486, "typical_volume": 4976676.0, "trend": 1.984367, "fair_value": 2.064987, "relative_strength": -24.114212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.245242, "energy": 51.750627, "activity_lines": [ 1.766133, 1.799236, 1.861324, 1.91463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.744, "volume": 3934305, "typical_volume": 4944565.55, "trend": 1.970667, "fair_value": 2.059821, "relative_strength": -24.162794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.980372, "energy": 46.268274, "activity_lines": [ 1.756933, 1.781764, 1.844914, 1.899123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.812, "volume": 3188697, "typical_volume": 4921700.05, "trend": 1.958067, "fair_value": 2.05541, "relative_strength": -22.160354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.907041, "energy": 39.891492, "activity_lines": [ 1.7708, 1.779127, 1.836557, 1.888886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }