{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f2be540-94fa-41f2-bf8e-9091dfe380be", "symbol": "TPZ", "name": "Topaz Energy Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.396, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.56, "architecture_energy": 15.626, "architecture_maturity": 19.286, "architecture_confidence": 45.342, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.94, "rotation_up": 43.04, "upward_expansion": 63.69, "deceleration": 63.17, "rotation_down": 18.14, "downward_expansion": 11.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.344667, 31.175294, 31.23911, 31.100761 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 30.110001, "trend_reference": 30.629426, "distance_from_trend": -0.016958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.99768, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.789718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068079, "excess_performance": -0.052343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068079, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.607518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2067500, "relative_activity": 1.030378, "balance": 1.607518, "dry_up": 1.067183, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043346, "annualized_volatility": 0.219989, "from_high_reference": -0.102404, "from_low_reference": 0.270796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.629426, "fair_value_reference": 23.99768, "structural_low": 27.755584, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.019398, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.037859, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.117594, "worst_return": -0.057279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.107352, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.091106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169173, "worst_return": -0.081174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.141765, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.075786, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.357163, "worst_return": -0.028111, "sufficient": true 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30.526, 31.020612, 31.081909, 30.75597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.99, "volume": 1791100, "typical_volume": 2528585.0, "trend": 30.187744, "fair_value": 23.754477, "relative_strength": 3.211873, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.648992, "energy": 16.844642, "activity_lines": [ 30.965333, 31.134489, 31.166472, 30.884095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.68, "volume": 2458000, "typical_volume": 2391285.0, "trend": 30.374312, "fair_value": 23.845447, "relative_strength": 5.066126, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.517614, "energy": 36.390671, "activity_lines": [ 31.647333, 31.35749, 31.311187, 31.044886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.65, "volume": 2248800, "typical_volume": 2195560.0, "trend": 30.519622, "fair_value": 23.927383, "relative_strength": 2.172128, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.218163, "energy": 38.57361, "activity_lines": [ 31.817333, 31.395279, 31.349053, 31.127188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.110001, "volume": 2067500, "typical_volume": 2006545.0, "trend": 30.629426, "fair_value": 23.99768, "relative_strength": -5.789718, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.560212, "energy": 15.626287, "activity_lines": [ 31.344667, 31.175294, 31.23911, 31.100761 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }