{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f2ed345-c7a9-4ba9-92ea-2eb1907f52ff", "symbol": "UPST", "name": "Upstart Holdings\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.398, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.824, "architecture_energy": 28.445, "architecture_maturity": 19.519, "architecture_confidence": 67.474, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.06, "rotation_up": 13.43, "upward_expansion": 12.64, "deceleration": 51.63, "rotation_down": 58.6, "downward_expansion": 66.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.184, 30.416, 30.736667, 30.502452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.09, "trend_reference": 31.542333, "distance_from_trend": -0.014341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.146442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.694871, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.186977, "excess_performance": -0.374431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126203, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336949, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174027, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.836082, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34418465, "relative_activity": 1.578153, "balance": 1.836082, "dry_up": 0.979635, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138055, "annualized_volatility": 0.677774, "from_high_reference": -0.595971, "from_low_reference": 0.297309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.542333, "fair_value_reference": 42.146442, "structural_low": 23.965, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.093894, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.069618, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.350802, "worst_return": -0.351835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.170315, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.031397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.911839, "worst_return": -0.330988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.49884, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.315337, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.265563, "worst_return": -0.149893, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 33.277333, 32.313273, 31.253524, 31.626022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.51, "volume": 16558382, "typical_volume": 22480133.35, "trend": 33.441333, "fair_value": 42.620449, "relative_strength": -39.730545, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.425859, "energy": 12.971106, "activity_lines": [ 32.173333, 31.957455, 31.20481, 31.333505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.93, "volume": 15223605, "typical_volume": 21997515.05, "trend": 32.756667, "fair_value": 42.375256, "relative_strength": -42.398085, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.061806, "energy": 22.74983, "activity_lines": [ 30.275333, 31.122545, 30.899524, 30.913419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.44, "volume": 19260264, "typical_volume": 21480660.25, "trend": 32.143333, "fair_value": 42.161891, "relative_strength": -39.87363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.099136, "energy": 32.863164, "activity_lines": [ 28.914, 30.427273, 30.646857, 30.570409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.09, "volume": 34418465, "typical_volume": 21809331.4, "trend": 31.542333, "fair_value": 42.146442, "relative_strength": -33.694871, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.824195, "energy": 28.44465, "activity_lines": [ 29.184, 30.416, 30.736667, 30.502452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }