{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f335a29-a063-4b3e-99d3-ceca26b89a41", "symbol": "UPLD", "name": "Upland Software Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.734, "architecture_energy": 39.008, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.512, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.79, "rotation_up": 22.28, "upward_expansion": 4.85, "deceleration": 56.22, "rotation_down": 48.23, "downward_expansion": 75.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.781333, 4.890436, 5.734795, 6.24992 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 7.515533, "distance_from_trend": -0.301447, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.062603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.790525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.893294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.569672, "excess_performance": -0.757126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.301447, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.790525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.658933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.569672, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.321958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140985, "relative_activity": 0.144059, "balance": 0.321958, "dry_up": 0.097344, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.3144, "annualized_volatility": 1.377795, "from_high_reference": -0.865729, "from_low_reference": 0.3125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.515533, "fair_value_reference": 25.062603, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.062117, "positive_rate": 0.413043, "directional_follow_through": 0.586957, "median_excess_return": -0.053137, "regime_survival": 0.891304, "best_return": 0.537849, "worst_return": -0.552602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.079416, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11847, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.684825, "worst_return": -0.665644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.274262, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.37296, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.322957, "worst_return": -0.581288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.642957, "energy": 58.953881, "activity_lines": [ 4.983333, 5.600382, 6.225471, 6.951486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.1, "volume": 63756, "typical_volume": 1316484.95, "trend": 8.188533, "fair_value": 25.404846, "relative_strength": -73.289286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.354341, "energy": 46.709538, "activity_lines": [ 4.718, 5.2236, 6.007414, 6.663624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 116219, "typical_volume": 1081741.05, "trend": 7.833867, "fair_value": 25.21741, "relative_strength": -70.89142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.048557, "energy": 42.771633, "activity_lines": [ 4.612, 4.951691, 5.826129, 6.416622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 140985, "typical_volume": 978658.15, "trend": 7.515533, "fair_value": 25.062603, "relative_strength": -65.893294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.73379, "energy": 39.008293, "activity_lines": [ 4.781333, 4.890436, 5.734795, 6.24992 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }