{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f34d51c-4e82-4314-b5a6-cf5533376cad", "symbol": "BAG", "name": "A.G. BARR p.l.c.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.948, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.61, "architecture_energy": 16.521, "architecture_maturity": 15.203, "architecture_confidence": 61.47, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.35, "rotation_up": 22.18, "upward_expansion": 20.33, "deceleration": 52.06, "rotation_down": 36.44, "downward_expansion": 52.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 632.0, 635.418182, 632.341646, 636.143384 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 607.0, "trend_reference": 642.049322, "distance_from_trend": -0.05459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 613.304192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.21619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092457, "excess_performance": -0.143692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008206, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416682, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2533076, "relative_activity": 2.918037, "balance": 0.416682, "dry_up": 1.290593, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055886, "annualized_volatility": 0.233979, "from_high_reference": -0.151225, "from_low_reference": 0.03056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 642.049322, "fair_value_reference": 613.304192, "structural_low": 589.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.00628, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.008032, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.101124, "worst_return": -0.06226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003374, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010457, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.1242, "worst_return": -0.086751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071069, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.031142, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.085361, "worst_return": -0.037519, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.212468, "energy": 13.765099, "activity_lines": [ 637.4, 631.309091, 631.897443, 637.456103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 655.0, "volume": 756611, "typical_volume": 850831.05, "trend": 641.234334, "fair_value": 610.591523, "relative_strength": -6.341179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.697561, "energy": 15.906571, "activity_lines": [ 642.733333, 636.690909, 633.485867, 638.3596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 634.0, "volume": 635124, "typical_volume": 841988.8, "trend": 641.506026, "fair_value": 611.542736, "relative_strength": -10.009727, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.596068, "energy": 10.540069, "activity_lines": [ 640.866667, 637.545455, 633.26873, 637.892868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 650.0, "volume": 556517, "typical_volume": 835164.55, "trend": 642.61098, "fair_value": 612.542069, "relative_strength": -8.410222, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.387601, "energy": 13.43811, "activity_lines": [ 643.666667, 640.672727, 634.807953, 638.440867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 607.0, "volume": 2533076, "typical_volume": 868075.4, "trend": 642.049322, "fair_value": 613.304192, "relative_strength": -14.21619, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.609757, "energy": 16.521035, "activity_lines": [ 632.0, 635.418182, 632.341646, 636.143384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }