{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f3b89ad-d93f-4b4f-9024-07b4e0b5573e", "symbol": "6473", "name": "meimaii Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.543, "architecture_energy": 70.042, "architecture_maturity": 19.178, "architecture_confidence": 90.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.97, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 15.59, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 71.24, "downward_expansion": 91.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.744, 7.050545, 7.60817, 7.841142 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.47, "trend_reference": 7.984919, "distance_from_trend": -0.189722, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.241843, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.299923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.462984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.189223, "excess_performance": -0.630595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189722, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022931, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.299923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248289, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.39463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.189223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.395178, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372361, "relative_activity": 0.26883, "balance": 0.395178, "dry_up": 0.129363, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143298, "annualized_volatility": 0.413128, "from_high_reference": -0.630286, "from_low_reference": 0.08557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.984919, "fair_value_reference": 9.241843, "structural_low": 6.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.007164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013555, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.39833, "worst_return": -0.247577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.070866, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014017, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.381818, "worst_return": -0.308434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.106647, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.195041, "worst_return": -0.406863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112094, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132497, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": 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"Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.254329, "energy": 27.522416, "activity_lines": [ 7.569333, 7.726186, 8.167361, 8.171272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.99, "volume": 112832, "typical_volume": 1424110.7, "trend": 8.029585, "fair_value": 9.329087, "relative_strength": -33.801674, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.667879, "energy": 35.124231, "activity_lines": [ 7.381333, 7.543685, 8.043182, 8.106374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.64, "volume": 108761, "typical_volume": 1416727.5, "trend": 8.041585, "fair_value": 9.298253, "relative_strength": -35.55037, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.086645, "energy": 56.128089, "activity_lines": [ 7.120667, 7.336275, 7.890242, 8.016723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.88, "volume": 122781, "typical_volume": 1401617.15, "trend": 8.029919, "fair_value": 9.269599, "relative_strength": -34.058936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.528053, "energy": 61.978297, "activity_lines": [ 6.976, 7.212319, 7.765777, 7.941782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.47, "volume": 372361, "typical_volume": 1385119.05, "trend": 7.984919, "fair_value": 9.241843, "relative_strength": -39.462984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.543004, "energy": 70.041625, "activity_lines": [ 6.744, 7.050545, 7.60817, 7.841142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }