{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f484cee-fdcd-4f39-8cd8-d1e2279c9ada", "symbol": "AYAL", "name": "Ayalon Insurance Company Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-04", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.932, "architecture_energy": 70.764, "architecture_maturity": 26.256, "architecture_confidence": 74.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.83, "rotation_up": 79.5, "upward_expansion": 88.25, "deceleration": 43.49, "rotation_down": 8.35, "downward_expansion": 12.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 1666734.9284, 1563840.5096, 1526368.585603, 1524509.328207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1836000.0, "trend_reference": 1494863.904433, "distance_from_trend": 0.228205, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 591640.121931, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.103238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 42.192583, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.203452, "excess_performance": 0.224937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.228205, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132713, "read": "Rising" 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1206782.1217, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.031718, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.009582, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.069019, "worst_return": -0.050736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00168, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.305038, "worst_return": -0.244186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.238095, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.779642, "worst_return": -0.261923, "sufficient": false }, { 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decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.264846, "energy": 35.967128, "activity_lines": [ 1564492.467467, 1490117.059673, 1497350.71239, 1500816.312437 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 1836000.0, "volume": 519314, "typical_volume": 488656.05, "trend": 1494863.904433, "fair_value": 591640.121931, "relative_strength": 42.192583, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.932193, "energy": 70.764362, "activity_lines": [ 1666734.9284, 1563840.5096, 1526368.585603, 1524509.328207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }