{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f51d009-3777-497c-8120-8bf42268b7da", "symbol": "FRG", "name": "Firering Strategic Minerals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.611, "architecture_energy": 25.008, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.092, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.04, "rotation_up": 26.09, "upward_expansion": 14.88, "deceleration": 43.16, "rotation_down": 29.2, "downward_expansion": 60.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.009467, 0.009373, 0.009732, 0.010367 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0095, "trend_reference": 0.011208, "distance_from_trend": -0.152416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.030718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.690735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.530199, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.269231, "excess_performance": -0.320466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.690735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001986, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269231, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.113632, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 870967, "relative_activity": 0.132104, "balance": 0.113632, "dry_up": 0.547066, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130364, "annualized_volatility": 0.514759, "from_high_reference": -0.604167, "from_low_reference": 0.117647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.011208, "fair_value_reference": 0.030718, "structural_low": 0.0085, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.083741, "regime_survival": 0.967742, "best_return": 0.226667, "worst_return": -0.271429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.153821, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.03125, "worst_return": -0.522388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.351724, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.35068, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.507463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.397059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.716418, "active": true 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"gate": "down", "direction": -62.367264, "energy": 51.764504, "activity_lines": [ 0.009133, 0.009386, 0.010206, 0.010884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0095, "volume": 6491104, "typical_volume": 9388864.95, "trend": 0.01155, "fair_value": 0.031846, "relative_strength": -36.969718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.683547, "energy": 39.232198, "activity_lines": [ 0.009233, 0.00935, 0.010057, 0.010741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0095, "volume": 4922777, "typical_volume": 8683326.05, "trend": 0.011433, "fair_value": 0.031474, "relative_strength": -37.026417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.256439, "energy": 36.263869, "activity_lines": [ 0.009333, 0.009341, 0.009925, 0.010609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0095, "volume": 2142481, "typical_volume": 8449687.8, "trend": 0.011325, "fair_value": 0.031096, "relative_strength": -37.023407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.16739, "energy": 29.623394, "activity_lines": [ 0.009417, 0.00935, 0.009819, 0.010484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0095, "volume": 870967, "typical_volume": 6593049.15, "trend": 0.011208, "fair_value": 0.030718, "relative_strength": -36.530199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.610965, "energy": 25.007907, "activity_lines": [ 0.009467, 0.009373, 0.009732, 0.010367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }