{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f521837-44d6-4ffd-a39d-0e2f4a67ede0", "symbol": "WTM", "name": "White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.012, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.56, "architecture_energy": 11.102, "architecture_maturity": 8.753, "architecture_confidence": 56.2, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.93, "rotation_up": 49.25, "upward_expansion": 40.42, "deceleration": 35.62, "rotation_down": 21.17, "downward_expansion": 15.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2157.766667, 2145.722909, 2138.751333, 2148.954388 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2149.44, "trend_reference": 2151.692729, "distance_from_trend": -0.001047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1841.975113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166921, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.552732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015827, "excess_performance": -0.141452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.764509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122053, "relative_activity": 1.295723, "balance": 1.764509, "dry_up": 0.974391, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044351, "annualized_volatility": 0.180125, "from_high_reference": -0.07868, "from_low_reference": 0.304865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2151.692729, "fair_value_reference": 1841.975113, "structural_low": 1987.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.016378, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.019103, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.189414, "worst_return": -0.062179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.070721, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.0221, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.245002, "worst_return": -0.029366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.154195, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.062431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228038, 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"volume": 122053, "typical_volume": 94196.8, "trend": 2151.692729, "fair_value": 1841.975113, "relative_strength": -6.552732, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.559602, "energy": 11.101963, "activity_lines": [ 2157.766667, 2145.722909, 2138.751333, 2148.954388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }