{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f52b526-30e5-423c-a096-32eaf6b2b90e", "symbol": "VARDMNPOLY", "name": "Vardhman Polytex Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.999, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.532, "architecture_energy": 62.63, "architecture_maturity": 11.499, "architecture_confidence": 91.1, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.83, "rotation_up": 11.45, "upward_expansion": 13.96, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 68.61, "downward_expansion": 89.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.248, 6.469455, 6.656571, 6.839613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.48, "trend_reference": 6.958333, "distance_from_trend": -0.068743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.704472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.255555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.350759, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021148, "excess_performance": 0.022561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004572, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.255555, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051938, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.333165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1713649, "relative_activity": 1.983861, "balance": 0.333165, "dry_up": 1.36478, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098528, "annualized_volatility": 0.498832, "from_high_reference": -0.386364, "from_low_reference": 0.270588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.958333, "fair_value_reference": 8.704472, "structural_low": 5.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.031183, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013673, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.405343, "worst_return": -0.15869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049849, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.025581, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.413473, "worst_return": -0.187234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093897, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.624365, "worst_return": -0.212791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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8.620908, "energy": 10.43036, "activity_lines": [ 7.014, 6.896182, 7.070238, 7.050602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.84, "volume": 250749, "typical_volume": 2655952.65, "trend": 6.930667, "fair_value": 8.699344, "relative_strength": -8.966435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.170046, "energy": 6.539009, "activity_lines": [ 6.98, 6.891273, 7.030238, 7.045462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.63, "volume": 884689, "typical_volume": 1483699.2, "trend": 6.942333, "fair_value": 8.700402, "relative_strength": -10.582561, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.095178, "energy": 9.681458, "activity_lines": [ 6.852667, 6.850727, 6.972952, 7.026065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.39, "volume": 1076733, "typical_volume": 1095081.9, "trend": 6.943667, "fair_value": 8.700754, "relative_strength": -13.286451, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.805382, "energy": 33.188855, "activity_lines": [ 6.668667, 6.772545, 6.894857, 6.99043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.01, "volume": 1055836, "typical_volume": 930796.7, "trend": 6.931333, "fair_value": 8.702549, "relative_strength": -15.567659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.273971, "energy": 65.16378, "activity_lines": [ 6.41, 6.635455, 6.790333, 6.930194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.97, "volume": 869340, "typical_volume": 813447.85, "trend": 6.922667, "fair_value": 8.703414, "relative_strength": -17.431922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.112074, "energy": 71.58843, "activity_lines": [ 6.210667, 6.501273, 6.694381, 6.868172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.48, "volume": 1713649, "typical_volume": 863794.7, "trend": 6.958333, "fair_value": 8.704472, "relative_strength": -10.350759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.532232, "energy": 62.630323, "activity_lines": [ 6.248, 6.469455, 6.656571, 6.839613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }