{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f54ca19-ab88-4fdc-96d7-cd69ce233eed", "symbol": "SCHP", "name": "S\u00e9ch\u00e9 Environnement SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.541, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.114, "architecture_energy": 19.841, "architecture_maturity": 33.18, "architecture_confidence": 52.576, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.57, "rotation_up": 41.98, "upward_expansion": 62.04, "deceleration": 67.36, "rotation_down": 18.5, "downward_expansion": 12.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.813334, 80.371853, 81.328525, 80.23103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 80.900002, "trend_reference": 78.013462, "distance_from_trend": 0.037001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.485669, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.316887, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.38765, "excess_performance": 0.334339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017119, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.38765, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11884, "relative_activity": 0.602748, "balance": 0.860245, "dry_up": 0.830402, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043469, "annualized_volatility": 0.284192, "from_high_reference": -0.225096, "from_low_reference": 0.455036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.013462, "fair_value_reference": 89.485669, "structural_low": 57.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006116, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.027607, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.16622, "worst_return": -0.175221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103666, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.028765, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.373473, "worst_return": -0.227778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090268, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.126392, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.322377, "worst_return": -0.263333, "sufficient": true }, 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.202497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012973, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012666, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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79.183759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 77.300003, "volume": 30371, "typical_volume": 43288.15, "trend": 76.836795, "fair_value": 90.312573, "relative_strength": -5.266101, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.578367, "energy": 16.300991, "activity_lines": [ 78.756537, 80.19395, 81.243361, 79.232998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.400002, "volume": 28571, "typical_volume": 43002.7, "trend": 77.243462, "fair_value": 90.116975, "relative_strength": 1.637212, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.079675, "energy": 16.10389, "activity_lines": [ 79.671757, 80.375699, 81.471438, 79.591915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.199997, "volume": 15142, "typical_volume": 41646.75, "trend": 77.580128, "fair_value": 89.902415, "relative_strength": 0.405973, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.557936, "energy": 11.330577, "activity_lines": [ 80.220394, 80.377447, 81.512848, 79.847175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.5, "volume": 9893, "typical_volume": 26049.2, "trend": 77.870128, "fair_value": 89.694638, "relative_strength": -1.247884, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.852641, "energy": 13.788068, "activity_lines": [ 80.485022, 80.321013, 81.416639, 80.035554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.900002, "volume": 11884, "typical_volume": 19716.35, "trend": 78.013462, "fair_value": 89.485669, "relative_strength": -2.316887, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.113723, "energy": 19.841491, "activity_lines": [ 80.813334, 80.371853, 81.328525, 80.23103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }