{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f60d6c8-4221-4f79-9dc9-9fd17b0d71fd", "symbol": "IPO", "name": "InPlay Oil Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.858, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.806, "architecture_energy": 13.802, "architecture_maturity": 28.397, "architecture_confidence": 61.89, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.1, "rotation_up": 30.71, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 47.62, "rotation_down": 30.16, "downward_expansion": 33.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.098171, 15.003127, 15.54255, 15.771284 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.13, "trend_reference": 15.726402, "distance_from_trend": -0.037924, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.509099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.504989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008927, "excess_performance": -0.111494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314612, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008927, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.57776, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 450300, "relative_activity": 0.801018, "balance": 1.57776, "dry_up": 1.018705, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073876, "annualized_volatility": 0.420964, "from_high_reference": -0.189279, "from_low_reference": 0.521642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.726402, "fair_value_reference": 11.509099, "structural_low": 13.946321, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0486, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.007023, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.301471, "worst_return": -0.053234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.024673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121323, "worst_return": -0.031709, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022288, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133999, "worst_return": -0.229822, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.865531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.81, "volume": 760300, "typical_volume": 566130.0, "trend": 15.411176, "fair_value": 11.458933, "relative_strength": -1.621753, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.483022, "energy": 56.651769, "activity_lines": [ 14.605321, 15.179831, 15.821366, 15.833337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.29, "volume": 504400, "typical_volume": 563325.0, "trend": 15.531277, "fair_value": 11.478004, "relative_strength": 0.872734, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.125243, "energy": 39.926975, "activity_lines": [ 14.820685, 15.092562, 15.731573, 15.825519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.19, "volume": 575700, "typical_volume": 572070.0, "trend": 15.629356, "fair_value": 11.494043, "relative_strength": 0.277895, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.672868, "energy": 22.37185, "activity_lines": [ 14.995311, 15.029726, 15.637346, 15.803501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.13, "volume": 450300, "typical_volume": 562160.0, "trend": 15.726402, "fair_value": 11.509099, "relative_strength": -3.504989, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.805696, "energy": 13.801593, "activity_lines": [ 15.098171, 15.003127, 15.54255, 15.771284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }