{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f61f2f6-0aa9-402b-b4e7-b6022c6ec69e", "symbol": "SOBO", "name": "South Bow Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.663, "architecture_energy": 42.599, "architecture_maturity": 57.207, "architecture_confidence": 70.906, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.72, "rotation_up": 49.01, "upward_expansion": 76.39, "deceleration": 66.32, "rotation_down": 23.61, "downward_expansion": 5.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.746, 51.501541, 50.512024, 49.072095 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.66, "trend_reference": 46.586732, "distance_from_trend": 0.065969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.644017, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3192, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.765827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.264304, "excess_performance": 0.143883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116009, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3192, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047658, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.264304, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.662182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3513500, "relative_activity": 0.812366, "balance": 1.662182, "dry_up": 0.690604, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054459, "annualized_volatility": 0.263716, "from_high_reference": -0.095446, "from_low_reference": 0.454059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.586732, "fair_value_reference": 37.644017, "structural_low": 38.726686, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047973, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031988, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.061257, "worst_return": 0.008698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.06801, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0034, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.06801, "worst_return": 0.06801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"direction": 76.684521, "energy": 56.270213, "activity_lines": [ 52.435793, 51.665735, 50.140105, 48.435379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.98, "volume": 3245100, "typical_volume": 4422935.0, "trend": 46.123418, "fair_value": 37.520141, "relative_strength": 13.38023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.679363, "energy": 51.736962, "activity_lines": [ 52.505333, 51.79468, 50.452353, 48.843928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.66, "volume": 3513500, "typical_volume": 4325020.0, "trend": 46.586732, "fair_value": 37.644017, "relative_strength": 4.765827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.663002, "energy": 42.59943, "activity_lines": [ 51.746, 51.501541, 50.512024, 49.072095 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }