{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f68c06d-26fe-44fd-b6df-f1a85d70400f", "symbol": "MCL", "name": "M Tek Copper Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.08, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.511, "architecture_energy": 44.985, "architecture_maturity": 51.907, "architecture_confidence": 76.254, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.76, "rotation_up": 22.56, "upward_expansion": 5.8, "deceleration": 60.63, "rotation_down": 56.6, "downward_expansion": 81.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.992, 55.259091, 57.342143, 59.071828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 58.310001, "trend_reference": 63.020667, "distance_from_trend": -0.074748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.282885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233216, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.331043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234375, "excess_performance": -0.190666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010983, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233216, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00331, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.411821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 494456, "relative_activity": 3.437821, "balance": 1.411821, "dry_up": 1.445197, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065763, "annualized_volatility": 0.353059, "from_high_reference": -0.374356, "from_low_reference": 0.388333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.020667, "fair_value_reference": 47.282885, "structural_low": 51.150002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.015674, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.023476, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.534979, "worst_return": -0.494883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065761, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005856, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.439081, "worst_return": -0.531607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.213772, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.072836, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.394928, "worst_return": -0.598435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064401, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"close": 54.459999, "volume": 102928, "typical_volume": 200493.05, "trend": 64.478334, "fair_value": 46.722244, "relative_strength": -4.295819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.844152, "energy": 83.596945, "activity_lines": [ 55.829333, 57.772546, 59.316905, 61.607699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.779999, "volume": 103207, "typical_volume": 188215.1, "trend": 64.606667, "fair_value": 46.877564, "relative_strength": -7.80065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.680497, "energy": 85.587478, "activity_lines": [ 54.556666, 56.586909, 58.583857, 60.852968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.369999, "volume": 97631, "typical_volume": 149089.55, "trend": 64.417334, "fair_value": 47.010705, "relative_strength": -4.741855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.578847, "energy": 83.15934, "activity_lines": [ 53.876666, 55.660909, 57.958047, 60.128022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.299999, "volume": 136147, "typical_volume": 133958.35, "trend": 63.563667, "fair_value": 47.114872, "relative_strength": -7.384746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.030891, "energy": 69.58486, "activity_lines": [ 53.467999, 54.928545, 57.389857, 59.410774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.310001, "volume": 494456, "typical_volume": 143828.3, "trend": 63.020667, "fair_value": 47.282885, "relative_strength": 0.331043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.510953, "energy": 44.984844, "activity_lines": [ 54.992, 55.259091, 57.342143, 59.071828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }