{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f6db158-3120-4d19-a030-16c0a65741eb", "symbol": "300425", "name": "Cscec Scimee Sci.&Tech. Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.328, "architecture_energy": 54.2, "architecture_maturity": 94.186, "architecture_confidence": 93.865, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 28.2, "upward_expansion": 9.74, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 50.34, "downward_expansion": 83.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.875333, 3.885197, 4.1275, 4.354216 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 4.638952, "distance_from_trend": -0.148515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.843155, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.184416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.111778, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247619, "excess_performance": -0.255019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07892, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.184416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.382145, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64894443, "relative_activity": 1.827722, "balance": 0.382145, "dry_up": 1.475377, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06786, "annualized_volatility": 0.24701, "from_high_reference": -0.300885, "from_low_reference": 0.079235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.638952, "fair_value_reference": 4.843155, "structural_low": 3.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.00996, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.002245, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.305344, "worst_return": -0.158004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007555, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008666, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.570707, "worst_return": -0.209865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03313, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018692, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.467891, "worst_return": -0.249004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.862, 3.985767, 4.303622, 4.518272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.74, "volume": 55041554, "typical_volume": 35796614.75, "trend": 4.708952, "fair_value": 4.857877, "relative_strength": -25.137419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.341957, "energy": 67.665979, "activity_lines": [ 3.819333, 3.914084, 4.22582, 4.453006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9, "volume": 49719049, "typical_volume": 35345506.95, "trend": 4.672286, "fair_value": 4.850293, "relative_strength": -19.911084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.508318, "energy": 61.139676, "activity_lines": [ 3.843333, 3.889044, 4.170779, 4.400816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 64894443, "typical_volume": 35505648.1, "trend": 4.638952, "fair_value": 4.843155, "relative_strength": -22.111778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.328399, "energy": 54.200183, "activity_lines": [ 3.875333, 3.885197, 4.1275, 4.354216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }