{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f738ce1-007d-479d-b602-01043f3d559b", "symbol": "DZZ", "name": "PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.122, "architecture_energy": 41.308, "architecture_maturity": 64.405, "architecture_confidence": 90.296, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.8, "rotation_up": 25.24, "upward_expansion": 5.12, "deceleration": 51.05, "rotation_down": 51.83, "downward_expansion": 80.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.870053, 1.901769, 1.989923, 2.145092 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.815, "trend_reference": 2.404363, "distance_from_trend": -0.245122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.224481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.184079, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.717488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351786, "excess_performance": -0.477411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.245122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.184079, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351786, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.669272, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15150, "relative_activity": 0.28169, "balance": 1.669272, "dry_up": 0.272361, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161403, "annualized_volatility": 0.585861, "from_high_reference": -0.8548, "from_low_reference": 0.226351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.404363, "fair_value_reference": 2.224481, "structural_low": 1.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.024148, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.038259, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 1.345888, "worst_return": -0.199347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.028931, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.068461, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.280725, "worst_return": -0.264875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009326, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06383, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.713802, "worst_return": -0.22, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181916, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.140362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1.8826, "volume": 20802, "typical_volume": 61578.45, "trend": 2.511213, "fair_value": 2.23379, "relative_strength": -32.711212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.582938, "energy": 35.709791, "activity_lines": [ 1.927487, 1.933891, 2.056905, 2.225817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8995, "volume": 9499, "typical_volume": 59897.6, "trend": 2.45453, "fair_value": 2.229705, "relative_strength": -32.717497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.321688, "energy": 36.150718, "activity_lines": [ 1.90854, 1.92378, 2.02577, 2.186352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.815, "volume": 15150, "typical_volume": 53782.5, "trend": 2.404363, "fair_value": 2.224481, "relative_strength": -37.717488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.121986, "energy": 41.308297, "activity_lines": [ 1.870053, 1.901769, 1.989923, 2.145092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }