{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f74866a-7b73-4305-a52c-fbb9579b6b1a", "symbol": "300463", "name": "Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.273, "architecture_energy": 28.378, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.482, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.96, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 21.56, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 57.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.048, 8.873636, 9.188286, 9.652452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.35, "trend_reference": 10.300667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.342928, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.966166, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.229819, "excess_performance": -0.237219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07518, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229819, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.89878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38271463, "relative_activity": 1.286653, "balance": 0.89878, "dry_up": 1.513754, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069272, "annualized_volatility": 0.250568, "from_high_reference": -0.341549, "from_low_reference": 0.154321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.300667, "fair_value_reference": 12.342928, "structural_low": 8.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.007045, "positive_rate": 0.418605, "directional_follow_through": 0.581395, "median_excess_return": -0.009184, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.299639, "worst_return": -0.213465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.033787, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.032278, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.232432, "worst_return": -0.414863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.027638, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.10408, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.08489, "worst_return": -0.434633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -86.225888, "energy": 94.842084, "activity_lines": [ 8.490667, 9.08, 9.805048, 10.280129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.75, "volume": 9846110, "typical_volume": 26488999.0, "trend": 10.696333, "fair_value": 12.528289, "relative_strength": -33.674945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.27347, "energy": 87.430527, "activity_lines": [ 8.502, 8.936909, 9.648143, 10.148688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.94, "volume": 50282340, "typical_volume": 26912446.7, "trend": 10.611667, "fair_value": 12.489142, "relative_strength": -28.883651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.013283, "energy": 65.767794, "activity_lines": [ 8.623333, 8.858182, 9.524952, 10.035376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.07, "volume": 56858079, "typical_volume": 28411076.2, "trend": 10.540333, "fair_value": 12.452519, "relative_strength": -19.891656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.968077, "energy": 56.790959, "activity_lines": [ 8.798, 8.831273, 9.427238, 9.935914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.51, "volume": 45515294, "typical_volume": 28691199.95, "trend": 10.441333, "fair_value": 12.414125, "relative_strength": -24.28257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.715015, "energy": 48.505978, "activity_lines": [ 8.750667, 8.732545, 9.289286, 9.804925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.09, "volume": 39461377, "typical_volume": 29387335.45, "trend": 10.362, "fair_value": 12.377254, "relative_strength": -16.970694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.382636, "energy": 36.662667, "activity_lines": [ 8.888667, 8.772545, 9.220762, 9.717742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.35, "volume": 38271463, "typical_volume": 29744967.65, "trend": 10.300667, "fair_value": 12.342928, "relative_strength": -17.966166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.273373, "energy": 28.377713, "activity_lines": [ 9.048, 8.873636, 9.188286, 9.652452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }