{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f771b9f-aabe-4aba-97dd-9edd37e66299", "symbol": "LMB", "name": "Limbach Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -92.024, "architecture_energy": 83.646, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.7, "rotation_up": 9.3, "upward_expansion": 17.38, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 84.13, "downward_expansion": 95.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.639333, 70.196545, 74.677, 77.238043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 48.7, "trend_reference": 80.383333, "distance_from_trend": -0.394153, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 75.294487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.353206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.999798, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.434576, "excess_performance": -0.622029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.394153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.353206, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.499998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.434576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3775957, "relative_activity": 2.78817, "balance": 0.629669, "dry_up": 1.191978, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186784, "annualized_volatility": 0.821411, "from_high_reference": -0.621218, "from_low_reference": 0.032874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.383333, "fair_value_reference": 75.294487, "structural_low": 47.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021088, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.012509, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.439252, "worst_return": -0.251164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031721, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005303, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.436187, "worst_return": -0.306831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04964, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261667, "worst_return": -0.004479, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.349181, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04322, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047583, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", 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"energy": 16.701409, "activity_lines": [ 78.928, 78.196, 80.474667, 81.590086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 75.57, "volume": 798859, "typical_volume": 1245032.25, "trend": 82.03, "fair_value": 74.300385, "relative_strength": -28.25419, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.143729, "energy": 20.089255, "activity_lines": [ 77.668, 77.589455, 79.843762, 81.172495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.75, "volume": 927784, "typical_volume": 1253754.7, "trend": 81.841667, "fair_value": 74.605641, "relative_strength": -26.53765, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.467723, "energy": 37.773467, "activity_lines": [ 75.78, 76.899273, 79.052238, 80.573785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.74, "volume": 767017, "typical_volume": 1221849.9, "trend": 81.624, "fair_value": 74.906154, "relative_strength": -24.013368, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.152586, "energy": 45.722802, "activity_lines": [ 74.311333, 76.188909, 78.348667, 79.986581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.7, "volume": 986320, "typical_volume": 1223084.45, "trend": 81.378333, "fair_value": 75.192564, "relative_strength": -24.072393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.972187, "energy": 48.886148, "activity_lines": [ 72.99, 75.286727, 77.590619, 79.346323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.7, "volume": 3775957, "typical_volume": 1354277.75, "trend": 80.383333, "fair_value": 75.294487, "relative_strength": -49.999798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.023712, "energy": 83.646435, "activity_lines": [ 64.639333, 70.196545, 74.677, 77.238043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }