{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f7c460c-a76f-4127-a3e0-df407d0ac7c1", "symbol": "ALPHI", "name": "Facephi Biometria, S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.152, "architecture_energy": 78.422, "architecture_maturity": 67.015, "architecture_confidence": 86.369, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 12.08, "upward_expansion": 17.18, "deceleration": 38.24, "rotation_down": 78.49, "downward_expansion": 95.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.764667, 1.851182, 1.997738, 2.083043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.68, "trend_reference": 2.203833, "distance_from_trend": -0.237692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.185192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.231189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.447309, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314286, "excess_performance": -0.367597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083264, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.231189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.334473, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278906, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2565, "relative_activity": 0.268955, "balance": 0.284161, "dry_up": 0.845112, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114011, "annualized_volatility": 0.34865, "from_high_reference": -0.424658, "from_low_reference": 0.012048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.203833, "fair_value_reference": 2.185192, "structural_low": 1.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.034586, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.023836, "regime_survival": 0.948718, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.163636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.030175, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.059108, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.229508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.163109, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.164487, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.079167, "worst_return": -0.272944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074219, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 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66.350352, "activity_lines": [ 2.048, 2.124364, 2.184524, 2.243484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.82, "volume": 29447, "typical_volume": 8333.7, "trend": 2.305333, "fair_value": 2.208878, "relative_strength": -26.981631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.266421, "energy": 70.431213, "activity_lines": [ 1.96, 2.058727, 2.145238, 2.210925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.82, "volume": 12656, "typical_volume": 8865.75, "trend": 2.286, "fair_value": 2.204199, "relative_strength": -26.464546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.507414, "energy": 77.382353, "activity_lines": [ 1.902, 2.001636, 2.108524, 2.179613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.81, "volume": 6525, "typical_volume": 8990.65, "trend": 2.261333, "fair_value": 2.197853, "relative_strength": -26.659809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.162309, "energy": 76.767952, "activity_lines": [ 1.852667, 1.953091, 2.073667, 2.148903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.795, "volume": 10493, "typical_volume": 9447.55, "trend": 2.2345, "fair_value": 2.19141, "relative_strength": -27.799807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.848072, "energy": 74.493621, "activity_lines": [ 1.817667, 1.909818, 2.04, 2.118817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.68, "volume": 2565, "typical_volume": 9536.9, "trend": 2.203833, "fair_value": 2.185192, "relative_strength": -33.447309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.152196, "energy": 78.421957, "activity_lines": [ 1.764667, 1.851182, 1.997738, 2.083043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }