{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f7f2a8d-42df-4fa4-98d2-54346a934acd", "symbol": "SPCENET", "name": "Spacenet Enterprises India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.782, "architecture_energy": 28.784, "architecture_maturity": 77.165, "architecture_confidence": 91.131, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.73, "rotation_up": 25.89, "upward_expansion": 4.9, "deceleration": 55.06, "rotation_down": 45.14, "downward_expansion": 75.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.654, 3.655636, 3.707727, 3.839619 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 4.1744, "distance_from_trend": -0.075316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.252705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.762501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.076455, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.355593, "excess_performance": -0.311884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238674, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.762501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066699, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.355593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3029282, "relative_activity": 0.907592, "balance": 0.572435, "dry_up": 0.879602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102372, "annualized_volatility": 0.732906, "from_high_reference": -0.656584, "from_low_reference": 0.290231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.1744, "fair_value_reference": 16.252705, "structural_low": 2.991713, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.062112, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.025851, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.478351, "worst_return": -0.589788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036397, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.064147, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.543662, "worst_return": -0.693836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090037, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.149618, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.513812, "worst_return": -0.674371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127247, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.709163, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08399, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141767, "active": 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-40.39722, "energy": 25.816127, "activity_lines": [ 3.750667, 3.690824, 3.778718, 4.044345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.65, "volume": 4688593, "typical_volume": 4429111.95, "trend": 4.461733, "fair_value": 16.513667, "relative_strength": -35.130796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.950332, "energy": 22.007689, "activity_lines": [ 3.752, 3.680503, 3.757661, 3.985739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.51, "volume": 1500608, "typical_volume": 4138822.95, "trend": 4.352733, "fair_value": 16.428795, "relative_strength": -35.445456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.698367, "energy": 29.131693, "activity_lines": [ 3.68, 3.65089, 3.729842, 3.924337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.42, "volume": 2524960, "typical_volume": 3930445.5, "trend": 4.2404, "fair_value": 16.345269, "relative_strength": -38.042499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.70623, "energy": 35.688037, "activity_lines": [ 3.579333, 3.609451, 3.697118, 3.864161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 3029282, "typical_volume": 3337714.65, "trend": 4.1744, "fair_value": 16.252705, "relative_strength": -30.076455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.782311, "energy": 28.784199, "activity_lines": [ 3.654, 3.655636, 3.707727, 3.839619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }