{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f7fce0e-635b-4424-b7b8-ee8f27867658", "symbol": "600536", "name": "China National Software & Service Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.964, "architecture_energy": 24.512, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.882, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.74, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 16.74, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 24.79, "downward_expansion": 62.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.924666, 30.966363, 32.897571, 34.77701 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.169998, "trend_reference": 37.889333, "distance_from_trend": -0.150948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.571218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.765658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.287012, "excess_performance": -0.243809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116780908, "relative_activity": 1.411695, "balance": 0.558101, "dry_up": 2.109595, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10356, "annualized_volatility": 0.466146, "from_high_reference": -0.433028, "from_low_reference": 0.199478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.889333, "fair_value_reference": 40.571218, "structural_low": 26.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.010604, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.00777, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.312821, "worst_return": -0.240731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052871, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.008076, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.318635, "worst_return": -0.206526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.168691, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.154361, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.65881, "worst_return": -0.386213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -64.926454, "energy": 61.881783, "activity_lines": [ 30.012001, 31.021091, 33.854857, 36.117118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.559999, "volume": 230775192, "typical_volume": 76193238.0, "trend": 38.795, "fair_value": 40.781218, "relative_strength": -26.46711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.267904, "energy": 50.549981, "activity_lines": [ 30.389333, 30.613455, 33.361714, 35.554774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.93, "volume": 123814569, "typical_volume": 79666819.75, "trend": 38.360333, "fair_value": 40.673718, "relative_strength": -20.497587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.059566, "energy": 32.862639, "activity_lines": [ 31.458, 30.810182, 33.146571, 35.176387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.169998, "volume": 116780908, "typical_volume": 82723902.95, "trend": 37.889333, "fair_value": 40.571218, "relative_strength": -23.765658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.964438, "energy": 24.512052, "activity_lines": [ 31.924666, 30.966363, 32.897571, 34.77701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }