{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f7ff7d0-642f-492b-93ea-b1d8be4778a8", "symbol": "PKTEA", "name": "The Peria Karamalai Tea and Produce Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.7, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.868, "architecture_energy": 51.543, "architecture_maturity": 12.927, "architecture_confidence": 63.053, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.54, "rotation_up": 18.93, "upward_expansion": 19.15, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 64.58, "downward_expansion": 60.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 690.426676, 714.65819, 746.190717, 757.504732 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 691.799988, "trend_reference": 757.376666, "distance_from_trend": -0.086584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 576.75109, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.431081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028775, "excess_performance": 0.072484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014634, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407011, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255229, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.786373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428, "relative_activity": 0.244062, "balance": 0.786373, "dry_up": 0.809597, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109074, "annualized_volatility": 0.324549, "from_high_reference": -0.306814, "from_low_reference": 0.221315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 757.376666, "fair_value_reference": 576.75109, "structural_low": 605.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065862, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.052177, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.291359, "worst_return": -0.059259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.155857, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.111971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280541, "worst_return": -0.102166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079282, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.07131, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140157, "worst_return": -0.034477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1866.8, "trend": 770.004999, "fair_value": 568.877762, "relative_strength": -4.247012, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.910673, "energy": 32.158454, "activity_lines": [ 739.143339, 756.178184, 773.780951, 773.433762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 677.150024, "volume": 2495, "typical_volume": 1934.05, "trend": 764.021665, "fair_value": 571.44732, "relative_strength": -6.908928, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.938587, "energy": 45.289857, "activity_lines": [ 715.583345, 739.102734, 763.640953, 767.443118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 676.400024, "volume": 593, "typical_volume": 1903.3, "trend": 758.223334, "fair_value": 574.037892, "relative_strength": -9.571973, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.13826, "energy": 51.279584, "activity_lines": [ 697.496683, 724.490011, 753.89548, 761.790109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 691.799988, "volume": 428, "typical_volume": 1753.65, "trend": 757.376666, "fair_value": 576.75109, "relative_strength": -8.431081, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.868141, "energy": 51.54335, "activity_lines": [ 690.426676, 714.65819, 746.190717, 757.504732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }