{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f8203e0-cdcd-4df4-ac16-d5a9e3e94c8a", "symbol": "TSMX", "name": "DIREXION DAILY TSM BULL 2X SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.278, "architecture_energy": 15.159, "architecture_maturity": 29.687, "architecture_confidence": 71.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.94, "rotation_up": 17.06, "upward_expansion": 40.2, "deceleration": 86.98, "rotation_down": 40.47, "downward_expansion": 34.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.516, 79.506267, 80.13802, 76.789765 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.33, "trend_reference": 72.338893, "distance_from_trend": 0.08282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.160661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.773751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.894299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.240472, "excess_performance": 0.053019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192109, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.773751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360825, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.158943, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317063, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.240472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2913229, "relative_activity": 0.609899, "balance": 0.459939, "dry_up": 0.85392, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189658, "annualized_volatility": 0.650826, "from_high_reference": -0.260296, "from_low_reference": 1.732339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.338893, "fair_value_reference": 44.160661, "structural_low": 49.3709, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.203623, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203623, "worst_return": 0.203623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.263746, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.076468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263746, "worst_return": 0.263746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.92, "volume": 3893113, "typical_volume": 4798910.7, "trend": 71.575109, "fair_value": 43.80473, "relative_strength": 14.549112, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.415002, "energy": 16.453368, "activity_lines": [ 75.426, 80.293224, 79.930123, 76.353966 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.33, "volume": 2913229, "typical_volume": 4776572.6, "trend": 72.338893, "fair_value": 44.160661, "relative_strength": 15.894299, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.277994, "energy": 15.158525, "activity_lines": [ 75.516, 79.506267, 80.13802, 76.789765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }