{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f87f5cd-dd23-45eb-af40-c3c3a4b0c83e", "symbol": "VHYL", "name": "Vanguard FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.765, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.19, "architecture_energy": 78.352, "architecture_maturity": 37.637, "architecture_confidence": 71.589, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 76.49, "upward_expansion": 92.78, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 18.43, "downward_expansion": 14.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.808, 80.172645, 78.657598, 77.510414 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 81.459999, "trend_reference": 76.097704, "distance_from_trend": 0.070466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.886152, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295357, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.128431, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095414, "excess_performance": -0.075478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295357, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003055, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.030874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196607, "relative_activity": 1.893406, "balance": 2.030874, "dry_up": 1.465743, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013302, "annualized_volatility": 0.086956, "from_high_reference": -0.002571, "from_low_reference": 0.273419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.097704, "fair_value_reference": 62.886152, "structural_low": 70.970001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.009282, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001521, "regime_survival": 0.795455, "best_return": 0.050058, "worst_return": -0.06337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.025263, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.010209, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.117719, "worst_return": -0.057737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.059969, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.014531, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.175717, "worst_return": -0.015645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 81.459999, "volume": 196607, "typical_volume": 103837.75, "trend": 76.097704, "fair_value": 62.886152, "relative_strength": -3.128431, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.189686, "energy": 78.35186, "activity_lines": [ 80.808, 80.172645, 78.657598, 77.510414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }