{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f8ca663-2884-42ae-ac91-94f53a140612", "symbol": "FC", "name": "Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.251, "architecture_energy": 15.072, "architecture_maturity": 17.726, "architecture_confidence": 74.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.14, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 51.49, "deceleration": 77.77, "rotation_down": 32.36, "downward_expansion": 24.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.887908, 11.937493, 11.93908, 11.908498 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.89, "trend_reference": 11.877953, "distance_from_trend": 0.001014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.360352, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.242142, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003981, "excess_performance": -0.124403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019859, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03292, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008161, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 329000, "relative_activity": 1.450969, "balance": 1.375179, "dry_up": 1.310282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015786, "annualized_volatility": 0.110144, "from_high_reference": -0.023991, "from_low_reference": 0.080446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.877953, "fair_value_reference": 10.360352, "structural_low": 11.287175, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.00558, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008227, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.113813, "worst_return": -0.092122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025907, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022653, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.126082, "worst_return": -0.094776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01483, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.034595, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.145727, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006809, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.434319, "volume": 92400, "typical_volume": 108475.0, "trend": 8.466036, "fair_value": 8.965333, "relative_strength": 0.082179, "stage": 1, "regime": 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-6.489379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.260736, "energy": 53.819629, "activity_lines": [ 12.034144, 11.97769, 11.935427, 11.896059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.95187, "volume": 220000, "typical_volume": 239705.0, "trend": 11.835616, "fair_value": 10.294409, "relative_strength": -6.995823, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.821148, "energy": 40.125189, "activity_lines": [ 12.015236, 11.982176, 11.942156, 11.905028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.041286, "volume": 189900, "typical_volume": 238020.0, "trend": 11.861043, "fair_value": 10.318432, "relative_strength": -6.237033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.628953, "energy": 38.350856, "activity_lines": [ 12.023577, 12.001365, 11.957971, 11.918297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.69, "volume": 449500, "typical_volume": 235745.0, "trend": 11.870844, "fair_value": 10.339702, "relative_strength": -8.214072, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.964861, "energy": 6.582082, "activity_lines": [ 11.912931, 11.950272, 11.939681, 11.907262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.89, "volume": 329000, "typical_volume": 226745.0, "trend": 11.877953, "fair_value": 10.360352, "relative_strength": -9.242142, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.251299, "energy": 15.072367, "activity_lines": [ 11.887908, 11.937493, 11.93908, 11.908498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }