{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3f8d05c4-903f-4560-9bbd-0228da8b6d0f",
    "symbol": "GWX",
    "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 60.445,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 15.069,
    "architecture_energy": 10.955,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.989,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.845,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.28,
        "rotation_up": 27.4,
        "upward_expansion": 26.21,
        "deceleration": 65.56,
        "rotation_down": 44.93,
        "downward_expansion": 32.54
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        43.996,
        43.91605,
        44.341819,
        44.28283
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 45.63,
    "trend_reference": 44.213746,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.032032,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 34.62265,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317923,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.680665,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.033522,
    "excess_performance": -0.092103,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032032,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030268,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.317923,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075007,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036807,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.066665,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033522,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.011045,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 238170,
      "relative_activity": 0.725611,
      "balance": 1.011045,
      "dry_up": 0.759856,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036982,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.212695,
      "from_high_reference": -0.02354,
      "from_low_reference": 0.215056
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 44.213746,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.62265,
      "structural_low": 40.7,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.064901,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006074,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.148676,
        "worst_return": -0.018874,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.161209,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.035175,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.288244,
        "worst_return": 0.034174,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.117293,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.138666,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.117293,
        "worst_return": 0.117293,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.251575,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.13151,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.251575,
        "worst_return": 0.251575,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.021587,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019503,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.046735,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007239,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.068568,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.039951,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.178523,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.042261,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.018633,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.083297,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.000924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.060177,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 33.750231,
        "relative_strength": -3.060562,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 23.635765,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 282268,
        "typical_volume": 333917.85,
        "trend": 43.289098,
        "fair_value": 33.853511,
        "relative_strength": -0.453478,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.984361,
        "energy": 22.335781,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 33.962703,
        "relative_strength": -1.948548,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.516007,
        "energy": 18.012556,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 328492.2,
        "trend": 43.629818,
        "fair_value": 34.057525,
        "relative_strength": -3.321922,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 12.738792,
        "energy": 13.547682,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.390726,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 43.8062,
        "volume": 423659,
        "typical_volume": 330905.25,
        "trend": 43.75493,
        "fair_value": 34.155776,
        "relative_strength": -4.22107,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 14.593901,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.092851,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 444695,
        "typical_volume": 346382.15,
        "trend": 43.875626,
        "fair_value": 34.248221,
        "relative_strength": -5.26476,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.071334,
        "energy": 12.907991,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 42.99,
        "volume": 272258,
        "typical_volume": 346415.9,
        "trend": 43.960413,
        "fair_value": 34.33609,
        "relative_strength": -5.730137,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.986302,
        "energy": 26.813787,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.568615,
          44.087316,
          44.385711,
          44.293663
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 43.25,
        "volume": 216851,
        "typical_volume": 330769.25,
        "trend": 44.033746,
        "fair_value": 34.42395,
        "relative_strength": -4.566184,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.881715,
        "energy": 35.05233,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.387493,
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          44.301985,
          44.24783
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 43.04,
        "volume": 270363,
        "typical_volume": 330788.7,
        "trend": 44.093746,
        "fair_value": 34.514475,
        "relative_strength": -5.994238,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.972508,
        "energy": 35.748442,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.251747,
          43.628511,
          44.20064,
          44.183717
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 45.63,
        "volume": 238170,
        "typical_volume": 328233.75,
        "trend": 44.213746,
        "fair_value": 34.62265,
        "relative_strength": -3.680665,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 15.068758,
        "energy": 10.954566,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.996,
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          44.28283
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}