{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f8f1898-329f-4889-a23b-524875bb5229", "symbol": "SRB", "name": "Serabi Gold plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.613, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.481, "architecture_energy": 47.388, "architecture_maturity": 6.99, "architecture_confidence": 80.582, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.0, "rotation_up": 16.0, "upward_expansion": 10.93, "deceleration": 40.14, "rotation_down": 63.3, "downward_expansion": 84.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 281.066667, 287.294933, 305.231567, 309.080971 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 318.0, "trend_reference": 314.111741, "distance_from_trend": 0.012379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 156.419566, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.032994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.533048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096552, "excess_performance": 0.045316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015213, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.032994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.563044, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01533, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.383643, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1796060, "relative_activity": 1.750096, "balance": 0.383643, "dry_up": 1.510689, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105596, "annualized_volatility": 0.603275, "from_high_reference": -0.152, "from_low_reference": 0.726384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 314.111741, "fair_value_reference": 156.419566, "structural_low": 230.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.01145, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002534, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.283019, "worst_return": -0.361842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.007511, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.617021, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.126541, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.199903, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.433962, "worst_return": -0.327586, "sufficient": false 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02454, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.269784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.353591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21374, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.5, "volume": 849270, "typical_volume": 694525.55, "trend": 28.816667, "fair_value": 54.657692, "relative_strength": -22.022243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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322.558634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 305.0, "volume": 209642, "typical_volume": 1295418.75, "trend": 318.511741, "fair_value": 148.268925, "relative_strength": 1.042764, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.696019, "energy": 21.167718, "activity_lines": [ 309.014753, 322.588508, 323.485192, 321.762178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 280.0, "volume": 911654, "typical_volume": 1296200.8, "trend": 318.345074, "fair_value": 149.91636, "relative_strength": -5.980725, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.798506, "energy": 43.384365, "activity_lines": [ 296.533927, 313.462892, 319.462086, 319.277549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 280.0, "volume": 979074, "typical_volume": 1206397.75, "trend": 318.145074, "fair_value": 151.554181, "relative_strength": -7.241417, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.007104, "energy": 65.857384, "activity_lines": [ 288.961653, 305.427091, 315.634218, 316.803673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 262.0, "volume": 2236410, "typical_volume": 1128379.9, "trend": 316.878408, "fair_value": 153.086232, "relative_strength": -14.521113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.903969, "energy": 73.925725, "activity_lines": [ 278.333333, 295.299271, 310.382541, 313.181411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 250.0, "volume": 1189920, "typical_volume": 1101120.25, "trend": 314.678408, "fair_value": 154.52854, "relative_strength": -19.567099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.511289, "energy": 80.946275, "activity_lines": [ 266.866667, 284.370363, 304.402292, 308.866675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 318.0, "volume": 1796060, "typical_volume": 1026263.95, "trend": 314.111741, "fair_value": 156.419566, "relative_strength": 1.533048, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.480506, "energy": 47.388009, "activity_lines": [ 281.066667, 287.294933, 305.231567, 309.080971 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }