{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f914c6f-f290-41e9-bfba-d70dfe6c9d34", "symbol": "NEO", "name": "Neo Energy Metals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.083, "architecture_energy": 14.666, "architecture_maturity": 34.132, "architecture_confidence": 87.632, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.65, "rotation_up": 32.72, "upward_expansion": 57.4, "deceleration": 81.36, "rotation_down": 26.49, "downward_expansion": 18.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.009313, 0.009405, 0.009285, 0.008931 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0095, "trend_reference": 0.008648, "distance_from_trend": 0.098478, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.008246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.10798, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117647, "excess_performance": 0.066412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098478, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068795, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152007, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10108, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180308, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117647, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46849259, "relative_activity": 0.423412, "balance": 0.354917, "dry_up": 0.408979, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194899, "annualized_volatility": 1.006626, "from_high_reference": -0.208333, "from_low_reference": 0.9 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008648, "fair_value_reference": 0.008246, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.083043, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107675, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.480263, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.115278, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.04, "worst_return": -0.414634, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.313366, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.376107, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.170732, "worst_return": -0.456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.01125, "volume": 23864184, "typical_volume": 115542360.05, "trend": 0.008387, "fair_value": 0.008379, "relative_strength": 35.531783, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.552927, "energy": 22.423294, "activity_lines": [ 0.009123, 0.00912, 0.00877, 0.008584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.011, "volume": 76008281, "typical_volume": 119342774.1, "trend": 0.008527, "fair_value": 0.008361, "relative_strength": 33.862099, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.493467, "energy": 42.180866, "activity_lines": [ 0.009933, 0.009409, 0.00902, 0.008752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.01, "volume": 53780883, "typical_volume": 122031818.25, "trend": 0.008643, "fair_value": 0.008337, "relative_strength": 19.957732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.760951, "energy": 46.015839, "activity_lines": [ 0.010183, 0.009525, 0.009164, 0.008847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0094, "volume": 34701427, "typical_volume": 123766889.6, "trend": 0.008615, "fair_value": 0.008309, "relative_strength": 10.981306, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.327875, "energy": 48.408157, "activity_lines": [ 0.010067, 0.009533, 0.009243, 0.008896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00825, "volume": 45677730, "typical_volume": 116115663.5, "trend": 0.00859, "fair_value": 0.008274, "relative_strength": -3.800044, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.403152, "energy": 23.98664, "activity_lines": [ 0.009473, 0.009342, 0.009208, 0.008873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0095, "volume": 46849259, "typical_volume": 110647068.2, "trend": 0.008648, "fair_value": 0.008246, "relative_strength": 10.10798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.082918, "energy": 14.665735, "activity_lines": [ 0.009313, 0.009405, 0.009285, 0.008931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }