{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f91a018-c57d-4168-b568-5de343afdc76", "symbol": "9179", "name": "Harvest Ether Spot ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.295, "architecture_energy": 26.353, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.6, "rotation_up": 30.58, "upward_expansion": 21.41, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 20.54, "downward_expansion": 55.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.562467, 0.543782, 0.568186, 0.59014 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.57, "trend_reference": 0.632767, "distance_from_trend": -0.099194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.848598, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.328304, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.464325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018933, "excess_performance": 0.014649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178261, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.328304, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284306, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.001136, "balance": 0.284306, "dry_up": 0.170651, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069231, "annualized_volatility": 0.396176, "from_high_reference": -0.610123, "from_low_reference": 0.247265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.632767, "fair_value_reference": 0.848598, "structural_low": 0.457, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015748, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009129, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.194093, "worst_return": -0.21393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.207874, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.176996, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.207874, "worst_return": -0.207874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102362, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-30", "close": 0.791, "volume": 127600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 0.754, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.00787, "energy": 65.79719, "activity_lines": [ 0.5134, 0.5336, 0.584648, 0.616056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.549, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 190275.0, "trend": 0.668567, "fair_value": 0.857131, "relative_strength": -34.77471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.281968, "energy": 60.393659, "activity_lines": [ 0.526533, 0.530364, 0.578743, 0.607585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.566, "volume": 120000, "typical_volume": 190475.0, "trend": 0.657333, "fair_value": 0.85422, "relative_strength": -33.026325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.40774, "energy": 41.689399, "activity_lines": [ 0.541933, 0.532782, 0.574795, 0.600968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.565, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 182975.0, "trend": 0.6455, "fair_value": 0.851356, "relative_strength": -34.625335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.96248, "energy": 29.094757, "activity_lines": [ 0.5544, 0.537127, 0.571081, 0.595011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.57, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 176090.0, "trend": 0.632767, "fair_value": 0.848598, "relative_strength": -32.464325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.294707, "energy": 26.353054, "activity_lines": [ 0.562467, 0.543782, 0.568186, 0.59014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }