{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f958b3b-903d-4a12-a9d1-b174e5baa9ce", "symbol": "BGL", "name": "Bellevue Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.588, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.619, "architecture_energy": 28.353, "architecture_maturity": 42.395, "architecture_confidence": 58.404, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.48, "rotation_up": 25.35, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 62.82, "rotation_down": 46.24, "downward_expansion": 69.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.341, 1.330182, 1.398238, 1.456613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.515, "trend_reference": 1.542, "distance_from_trend": -0.01751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.398558, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083259, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.645157, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084592, "excess_performance": -0.148298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01751, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016452, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084592, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639646, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36465455, "relative_activity": 1.316606, "balance": 0.639646, "dry_up": 1.136725, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107768, "annualized_volatility": 0.606488, "from_high_reference": -0.2425, "from_low_reference": 0.814371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.542, "fair_value_reference": 1.398558, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.002488, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006719, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.335616, "worst_return": -0.194969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.171875, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.147386, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.557377, "worst_return": -0.289062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072598, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.133429, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.765625, "worst_return": -0.285156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.336667, 1.385, 1.465333, 1.523957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.195, "volume": 25436509, "typical_volume": 30518481.5, "trend": 1.5765, "fair_value": 1.401795, "relative_strength": -13.940045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.891889, "energy": 76.298016, "activity_lines": [ 1.285, 1.341091, 1.43419, 1.498215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.265, "volume": 27441763, "typical_volume": 30302449.15, "trend": 1.5615, "fair_value": 1.400833, "relative_strength": -9.149661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.303341, "energy": 64.891013, "activity_lines": [ 1.266667, 1.316909, 1.412714, 1.478118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.26, "volume": 36589726, "typical_volume": 29395458.7, "trend": 1.546833, "fair_value": 1.399423, "relative_strength": -12.112122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.975728, "energy": 57.118029, "activity_lines": [ 1.260333, 1.297909, 1.392429, 1.458667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.515, "volume": 36465455, "typical_volume": 27696553.05, "trend": 1.542, "fair_value": 1.398558, "relative_strength": 1.645157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.618865, "energy": 28.353149, "activity_lines": [ 1.341, 1.330182, 1.398238, 1.456613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }