{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3f99de75-0c93-4f90-a959-5b8aaef5a609", "symbol": "INDCT", "name": "Induct AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.707, "architecture_energy": 67.072, "architecture_maturity": 84.022, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 29.76, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.59, "rotation_down": 55.9, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.885333, 0.95594, 1.433048, 1.93719 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.896, "trend_reference": 2.625711, "distance_from_trend": -0.658759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.589239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.750365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.508824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.780392, "excess_performance": -0.905386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.658759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.750365, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.452966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.745088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.40365, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.780392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 628890, "relative_activity": 1.371939, "balance": 0.512764, "dry_up": 0.637703, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.301864, "annualized_volatility": 0.774805, "from_high_reference": -0.813333, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.625711, "fair_value_reference": 3.589239, "structural_low": 0.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.035, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.041101, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 1.020513, "worst_return": -0.486684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.136364, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.160191, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.368421, "worst_return": -0.68, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.094075, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.045455, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.104116, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.229188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032, "worst_return": -0.156535, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.52, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.233503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.395973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172589, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.527397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018265, 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"close": 0.89, "volume": 179114, "typical_volume": 503444.3, "trend": 3.100178, "fair_value": 3.711188, "relative_strength": -75.685795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.379344, "energy": 92.207783, "activity_lines": [ 1.010757, 1.34451, 1.967911, 2.465021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.87, "volume": 101191, "typical_volume": 484046.15, "trend": 2.985845, "fair_value": 3.681509, "relative_strength": -76.090228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.811038, "energy": 90.494575, "activity_lines": [ 0.922067, 1.201685, 1.811981, 2.321139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.87, "volume": 217050, "typical_volume": 474991.55, "trend": 2.871511, "fair_value": 3.650868, "relative_strength": -76.106562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.380994, "energy": 88.878579, "activity_lines": [ 0.888378, 1.093952, 1.67067, 2.184632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.89, "volume": 222148, "typical_volume": 474309.95, "trend": 2.749845, "fair_value": 3.616829, "relative_strength": -75.114441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.374012, "energy": 84.003658, "activity_lines": [ 0.880022, 1.011673, 1.54493, 2.056793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.896, "volume": 628890, "typical_volume": 458394.95, "trend": 2.625711, "fair_value": 3.589239, "relative_strength": -74.508824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.706514, "energy": 67.072471, "activity_lines": [ 0.885333, 0.95594, 1.433048, 1.93719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }