{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3fa54cf1-f893-4c4f-b9f9-3f2a4f0a9c31",
    "symbol": "SEGM",
    "name": "iShares MSCI EM IMI Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 83.639,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 7.237,
    "architecture_energy": 19.6,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.237,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.638,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 57.25,
        "rotation_up": 15.9,
        "upward_expansion": 45.5,
        "deceleration": 87.97,
        "rotation_down": 44.17,
        "downward_expansion": 30.5
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.5539,
        7.706173,
        7.720095,
        7.562085
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 7.652,
    "trend_reference": 7.35445,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.040458,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.677288,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347827,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 2.233284,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.10618,
    "excess_performance": 0.054945,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040458,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067123,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.347827,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088862,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022333,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.134297,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.10618,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.647908,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 216947,
      "relative_activity": 0.712693,
      "balance": 1.647908,
      "dry_up": 0.777872,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.047459,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.235248,
      "from_high_reference": -0.104076,
      "from_low_reference": 0.337762
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.35445,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.677288,
      "structural_low": 6.421,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.00328,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005387,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.126916,
        "worst_return": -0.031144,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.026465,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029798,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.232296,
        "worst_return": -0.024884,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.020547,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029931,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.249531,
        "worst_return": 0.001197,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.042925,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016055,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.044569,
        "worst_return": 0.041281,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.044338,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.08147,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043819,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.019059,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031302,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000669,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.07936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051688,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.127314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 389038.65,
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        "relative_strength": 10.136553,
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        "direction": 60.406026,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 391666.85,
        "trend": 7.253533,
        "fair_value": 5.622318,
        "relative_strength": 2.149927,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.891426,
        "energy": 23.451177,
        "activity_lines": [
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          7.513043
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 7.5295,
        "volume": 148465,
        "typical_volume": 388398.75,
        "trend": 7.292633,
        "fair_value": 5.639943,
        "relative_strength": 2.507124,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.493947,
        "energy": 24.085276,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7.4475,
        "volume": 333650,
        "typical_volume": 359528.45,
        "trend": 7.322683,
        "fair_value": 5.6576,
        "relative_strength": 0.000667,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 12.002727,
        "energy": 21.368805,
        "activity_lines": [
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          7.540839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.652,
        "volume": 216947,
        "typical_volume": 304404.65,
        "trend": 7.35445,
        "fair_value": 5.677288,
        "relative_strength": 2.233284,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.236988,
        "energy": 19.5999,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}