{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fa625dc-691d-4728-b3e2-33a3470811a0", "symbol": "MAG", "name": "Magmatic Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.514, "architecture_energy": 34.572, "architecture_maturity": 76.634, "architecture_confidence": 81.67, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.7, "rotation_up": 21.05, "upward_expansion": 3.82, "deceleration": 56.79, "rotation_down": 47.41, "downward_expansion": 74.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0276, 0.028236, 0.029486, 0.031209 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.028, "trend_reference": 0.035333, "distance_from_trend": -0.207547, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.052497, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.466634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.966421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.428571, "excess_performance": -0.492277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207547, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202408, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.466634, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.399664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.682499, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 354497, "relative_activity": 0.190083, "balance": 1.682499, "dry_up": 0.49708, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184066, "annualized_volatility": 0.712001, "from_high_reference": -0.658537, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.035333, "fair_value_reference": 0.052497, "structural_low": 0.021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.039896, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.038675, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 1.785714, "worst_return": -0.344828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02769, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03912, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.305085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.098258, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.642857, "worst_return": -0.475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.288136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.186047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.589744, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": 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[ 0.028533, 0.030291, 0.030833, 0.033725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 1191138, "typical_volume": 2129166.25, "trend": 0.037967, "fair_value": 0.053369, "relative_strength": -34.382823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.011629, "energy": 43.319437, "activity_lines": [ 0.028867, 0.030164, 0.030624, 0.033155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 663280, "typical_volume": 2057811.4, "trend": 0.037, "fair_value": 0.053067, "relative_strength": -40.184653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.774384, "energy": 39.495599, "activity_lines": [ 0.028333, 0.029491, 0.03019, 0.032447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 1499226, "typical_volume": 1984148.5, "trend": 0.0362, "fair_value": 0.052779, "relative_strength": -43.050962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.050196, "energy": 39.294913, "activity_lines": [ 0.027667, 0.028655, 0.029714, 0.031738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.028, "volume": 354497, "typical_volume": 1864962.3, "trend": 0.035333, "fair_value": 0.052497, "relative_strength": -39.966421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.514237, "energy": 34.572353, "activity_lines": [ 0.0276, 0.028236, 0.029486, 0.031209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }