{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fb7425a-caae-4096-917a-40fe6de2d69a", "symbol": "2107", "name": "Formosan Rubber Group Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.526, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.056, "architecture_energy": 41.881, "architecture_maturity": 43.888, "architecture_confidence": 60.64, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.9, "rotation_up": 49.57, "upward_expansion": 78.97, "deceleration": 66.62, "rotation_down": 24.68, "downward_expansion": 5.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.643334, 25.634546, 25.254635, 24.962734 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.700001, "trend_reference": 24.580816, "distance_from_trend": 0.045531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.742225, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.993058, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098637, "excess_performance": -0.342735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055937, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.91655, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1110858, "relative_activity": 0.741372, "balance": 3.91655, "dry_up": 0.73338, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025627, "annualized_volatility": 0.10331, "from_high_reference": -0.019084, "from_low_reference": 0.174733 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.580816, "fair_value_reference": 22.742225, "structural_low": 23.203214, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.007295, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032324, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.088889, "worst_return": -0.062382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017002, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.051907, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.082521, "worst_return": -0.005458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05379, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.103671, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104803, "worst_return": -0.045399, "sufficient": true }, { 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-20.788097, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.054158, "energy": 73.628808, "activity_lines": [ 25.633333, 25.291581, 24.895585, 24.630115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.950001, "volume": 1218461, "typical_volume": 1538299.7, "trend": 24.350696, "fair_value": 22.621111, "relative_strength": -20.992172, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.825327, "energy": 71.582289, "activity_lines": [ 25.756667, 25.478497, 25.025054, 24.739102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.65, "volume": 1166836, "typical_volume": 1525336.45, "trend": 24.432256, "fair_value": 22.663754, "relative_strength": -20.102466, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.701602, "energy": 50.456169, "activity_lines": [ 25.743334, 25.572978, 25.116704, 24.822928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.4, "volume": 899376, "typical_volume": 1508443.35, "trend": 24.500747, "fair_value": 22.702465, "relative_strength": -22.002007, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.823489, "energy": 43.290859, "activity_lines": [ 25.63, 25.590433, 25.175149, 24.885363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.700001, "volume": 1110858, "typical_volume": 1498381.2, "trend": 24.580816, "fair_value": 22.742225, "relative_strength": -22.993058, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.055589, "energy": 41.88099, "activity_lines": [ 25.643334, 25.634546, 25.254635, 24.962734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }