{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fb7fce7-ed93-45dc-b4d5-ebdbdd5baa01", "symbol": "SOF", "name": "Sofina Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "BRU", "country": "BE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^BFX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.808, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.416, "architecture_energy": 85.997, "architecture_maturity": 13.486, "architecture_confidence": 71.841, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.63, "rotation_up": 79.68, "upward_expansion": 97.2, "deceleration": 41.87, "rotation_down": 8.41, "downward_expansion": 21.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 245.826666, 240.181818, 231.842202, 228.6627 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 243.600006, "trend_reference": 227.96718, "distance_from_trend": 0.068575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 223.635263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089274, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.826187, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009488, "excess_performance": -0.036455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068575, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010663, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133841, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009488, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.943623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59577, "relative_activity": 0.80334, "balance": 5.943623, "dry_up": 0.948813, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032924, "annualized_volatility": 0.218207, "from_high_reference": -0.069767, "from_low_reference": 0.216248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 227.96718, "fair_value_reference": 223.635263, "structural_low": 200.288123, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015253, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.041013, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.058654, "worst_return": -0.089938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001923, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016919, "worst_return": -0.001642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063654, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124016, "worst_return": -0.099151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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222.557315, 223.926094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 245.800003, "volume": 82554, "typical_volume": 89636.6, "trend": 228.431406, "fair_value": 222.59053, "relative_strength": -4.602601, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.708783, "energy": 69.163895, "activity_lines": [ 236.680002, 230.640001, 225.018962, 225.052285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 247.399994, "volume": 77996, "typical_volume": 84537.75, "trend": 228.178616, "fair_value": 222.921584, "relative_strength": -4.920596, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.126633, "energy": 78.049714, "activity_lines": [ 241.186666, 234.432727, 227.527755, 226.276065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 249.399994, "volume": 61335, "typical_volume": 78126.0, "trend": 227.828537, "fair_value": 223.315088, "relative_strength": -1.669188, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.708092, "energy": 81.536958, "activity_lines": [ 245.239997, 238.145453, 230.068264, 227.645186 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 243.600006, "volume": 59577, "typical_volume": 74161.6, "trend": 227.96718, "fair_value": 223.635263, "relative_strength": -5.826187, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.415851, "energy": 85.997489, "activity_lines": [ 245.826666, 240.181818, 231.842202, 228.6627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }