{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fb8795d-759b-4d05-a5e9-b534ae2f8eb2", "symbol": "NSIL", "name": "Nalwa Sons Investments Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.204, "architecture_energy": 12.864, "architecture_maturity": 76.866, "architecture_confidence": 67.321, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.42, "rotation_up": 23.19, "upward_expansion": 14.1, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 35.08, "downward_expansion": 61.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5533.5, 5517.5, 5554.255706, 5573.02945 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5655.0, "trend_reference": 5643.30332, "distance_from_trend": 0.002073, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5332.090381, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.332272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05899, "excess_performance": -0.015281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062419, "read": "Falling" 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4700.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020969, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003635, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.129286, "worst_return": -0.160238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034537, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025396, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.414785, "worst_return": -0.222282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.129521, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054741, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.833587, "worst_return": -0.174066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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5551.347605, 5602.961276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5452.5, "volume": 10060, "typical_volume": 10754.3, "trend": 5696.35332, "fair_value": 5293.461534, "relative_strength": -9.215277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.738102, "energy": 49.129473, "activity_lines": [ 5441.566667, 5496.009091, 5542.730464, 5584.873965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5520.0, "volume": 10046, "typical_volume": 10448.65, "trend": 5662.236654, "fair_value": 5312.325316, "relative_strength": -10.14023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.622629, "energy": 31.093606, "activity_lines": [ 5465.6, 5493.572727, 5542.153799, 5573.496331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5655.0, "volume": 12856, "typical_volume": 10314.95, "trend": 5643.30332, "fair_value": 5332.090381, "relative_strength": -8.332272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.204294, "energy": 12.864141, "activity_lines": [ 5533.5, 5517.5, 5554.255706, 5573.02945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }