{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fbe4e8d-e641-4a23-954e-c3ae5c4a56dc", "symbol": "UPB", "name": "Upstream Bio, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.29, "architecture_energy": 53.771, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.901, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.58, "rotation_up": 29.37, "upward_expansion": 8.33, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 48.09, "downward_expansion": 79.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.818, 6.861273, 7.41119, 8.229613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.25, "trend_reference": 10.96, "distance_from_trend": -0.338504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.880104, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.512772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.276799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.723282, "excess_performance": -0.910736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.338504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.512772, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.612768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.723282, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823793, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4100228, "relative_activity": 1.40697, "balance": 0.823793, "dry_up": 0.939561, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12756, "annualized_volatility": 1.62554, "from_high_reference": -0.784739, "from_low_reference": 0.239316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.96, "fair_value_reference": 14.880104, "structural_low": 5.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.110638, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150581, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.05037, "worst_return": -0.192584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.328723, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.350378, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.328723, "worst_return": -0.328723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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6.836667, 7.290545, 8.060571, 10.246258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.53, "volume": 2610823, "typical_volume": 3570967.75, "trend": 13.915667, "fair_value": 15.233804, "relative_strength": -61.650005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.311751, "energy": 64.447845, "activity_lines": [ 7.102667, 7.242, 7.981333, 9.792108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.01, "volume": 1882134, "typical_volume": 3310810.2, "trend": 13.171, "fair_value": 15.145376, "relative_strength": -62.506614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.612277, "energy": 57.912077, "activity_lines": [ 7.163333, 7.132909, 7.85519, 9.346581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.41, "volume": 2756082, "typical_volume": 3174325.05, "trend": 12.402, "fair_value": 15.052447, "relative_strength": -64.787196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.263903, "energy": 59.520146, "activity_lines": [ 6.963333, 6.952545, 7.675095, 8.910387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.31, "volume": 2213924, "typical_volume": 3015054.65, "trend": 11.71, "fair_value": 14.960421, "relative_strength": -65.046221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.175181, "energy": 62.611723, "activity_lines": [ 6.719333, 6.802727, 7.491429, 8.517355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.25, "volume": 4100228, "typical_volume": 2914225.4, "trend": 10.96, "fair_value": 14.880104, "relative_strength": -61.276799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.289541, "energy": 53.770788, "activity_lines": [ 6.818, 6.861273, 7.41119, 8.229613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }