{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fc56eef-3ea7-44eb-8f80-e1e8d8b4dee9", "symbol": "FLYW", "name": "Flywire Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.233, "architecture_energy": 32.584, "architecture_maturity": 76.769, "architecture_confidence": 80.873, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.37, "rotation_up": 42.71, "upward_expansion": 67.58, "deceleration": 82.02, "rotation_down": 25.53, "downward_expansion": 15.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.966, 17.034909, 16.352762, 15.448688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.78, "trend_reference": 14.383, "distance_from_trend": 0.236182, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.389006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022485, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.437153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.580444, "excess_performance": 0.392991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.236182, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097825, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114372, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.580444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.74924, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16756966, "relative_activity": 1.583951, "balance": 1.74924, "dry_up": 1.085312, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102557, "annualized_volatility": 0.563444, "from_high_reference": -0.063224, "from_low_reference": 0.685308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.383, "fair_value_reference": 17.389006, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.00572, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.012031, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.093516, "worst_return": -0.230506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060128, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081651, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.168637, "worst_return": -0.229494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.219722, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.285333, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206822, "worst_return": -0.518761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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65.145631, "energy": 73.656702, "activity_lines": [ 17.475333, 16.697273, 15.545619, 14.731441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.13, "volume": 9554387, "typical_volume": 10231808.45, "trend": 14.159333, "fair_value": 17.698301, "relative_strength": 19.299178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.930811, "energy": 78.804205, "activity_lines": [ 17.887333, 17.006, 15.89081, 14.994774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.89, "volume": 10202622, "typical_volume": 10099932.25, "trend": 14.207333, "fair_value": 17.584199, "relative_strength": 6.021878, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.489242, "energy": 52.445644, "activity_lines": [ 17.324667, 16.891091, 15.994952, 15.10643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.01, "volume": 9413008, "typical_volume": 10060296.6, "trend": 14.277667, "fair_value": 17.471378, "relative_strength": 5.82259, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.887033, "energy": 30.136462, "activity_lines": [ 16.799333, 16.801091, 16.098095, 15.222731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.78, "volume": 16756966, "typical_volume": 10579216.7, "trend": 14.383, "fair_value": 17.389006, "relative_strength": 11.437153, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.233187, "energy": 32.583646, "activity_lines": [ 16.966, 17.034909, 16.352762, 15.448688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }