{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fc99a3c-04f9-4c33-b6a9-089acfa9525f", "symbol": "PEPG", "name": "PepGen Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.892, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.179, "architecture_energy": 20.991, "architecture_maturity": 95.696, "architecture_confidence": 41.292, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.23, "rotation_up": 36.5, "upward_expansion": 29.65, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 51.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.261333, 2.088909, 1.898571, 2.33586 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.85, "trend_reference": 3.110333, "distance_from_trend": -0.083699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.955353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.521439, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.538593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.363839, "excess_performance": -0.551293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083699, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.521439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.325386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249787, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363839, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9072937, "relative_activity": 1.468213, "balance": 0.822302, "dry_up": 0.952587, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132475, "annualized_volatility": 1.743152, "from_high_reference": -0.634615, "from_low_reference": 1.821782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.110333, "fair_value_reference": 5.955353, "structural_low": 1.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.051613, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.085968, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.885827, "worst_return": -0.528184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.205479, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.305505, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 4.551724, "worst_return": -0.536508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.998894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.856861, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.362069, "worst_return": -0.672897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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8756234, "typical_volume": 5758428.15, "trend": 3.646333, "fair_value": 6.057917, "relative_strength": -44.191703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.390839, "energy": 57.211879, "activity_lines": [ 1.926, 1.756909, 1.934833, 2.660978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.25, "volume": 7910049, "typical_volume": 6080225.2, "trend": 3.540667, "fair_value": 6.022212, "relative_strength": -44.161723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.353377, "energy": 34.528213, "activity_lines": [ 2.072, 1.860727, 1.903405, 2.570892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.93, "volume": 3696392, "typical_volume": 5958645.0, "trend": 3.411333, "fair_value": 5.995032, "relative_strength": -51.366678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.373358, "energy": 29.098776, "activity_lines": [ 2.059333, 1.897455, 1.860405, 2.466978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.76, "volume": 2866950, "typical_volume": 5911031.15, "trend": 3.231, "fair_value": 5.972853, "relative_strength": -55.917114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.863936, "energy": 27.327482, "activity_lines": [ 1.980667, 1.896364, 1.819095, 2.360441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.85, "volume": 9072937, "typical_volume": 6179577.0, "trend": 3.110333, "fair_value": 5.955353, "relative_strength": -32.538593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.178872, "energy": 20.9908, "activity_lines": [ 2.261333, 2.088909, 1.898571, 2.33586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }