{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fca3d38-060f-4ed7-8d4a-60868ad6afd1", "symbol": "ABL", "name": "ABL Group ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.994, "architecture_energy": 71.842, "architecture_maturity": 13.732, "architecture_confidence": 94.735, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.02, "rotation_up": 22.36, "upward_expansion": 17.55, "deceleration": 38.09, "rotation_down": 60.24, "downward_expansion": 93.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.657333, 8.742909, 9.141676, 9.409695 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.64, "trend_reference": 9.52995, "distance_from_trend": -0.093385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.231204, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.362925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047895, "excess_performance": -0.172888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093385, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232993, "relative_activity": 0.612091, "balance": 0.621182, "dry_up": 0.518327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051293, "annualized_volatility": 0.303363, "from_high_reference": -0.28498, "from_low_reference": 0.135095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.52995, "fair_value_reference": 9.231204, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.015735, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.065934, "worst_return": -0.055276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027842, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029448, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.073053, "worst_return": -0.085603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032613, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.157151, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.425193, "worst_return": -0.120449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.399501, "energy": 57.643873, "activity_lines": [ 8.762667, 8.943962, 9.458074, 9.573316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.64, "volume": 365795, "typical_volume": 530893.45, "trend": 9.505343, "fair_value": 9.289852, "relative_strength": -13.248404, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.597909, "energy": 58.36119, "activity_lines": [ 8.704, 8.851528, 9.343346, 9.518278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.7, "volume": 171054, "typical_volume": 460036.8, "trend": 9.517692, "fair_value": 9.260091, "relative_strength": -12.766295, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.023764, "energy": 64.365633, "activity_lines": [ 8.684, 8.795273, 9.239359, 9.466321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.64, "volume": 232993, "typical_volume": 380651.1, "trend": 9.52995, "fair_value": 9.231204, "relative_strength": -13.362925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.994223, "energy": 71.841946, "activity_lines": [ 8.657333, 8.742909, 9.141676, 9.409695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }