{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3fcbf15a-6a20-44cc-8820-64e8e1f9b50f",
    "symbol": "GHM",
    "name": "Graham Corporation",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 95.475,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 39.462,
    "architecture_energy": 20.002,
    "architecture_maturity": 63.188,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.035,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.04,
        "rotation_up": 28.58,
        "upward_expansion": 56.54,
        "deceleration": 88.06,
        "rotation_down": 30.01,
        "downward_expansion": 20.21
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        105.120667,
        107.660364,
        105.035952,
        100.270473
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 111.68,
    "trend_reference": 93.531333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.194038,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 46.538782,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.399719,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 28.303561,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.341663,
    "excess_performance": 0.216038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.194038,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.196793,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.399719,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.131522,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.283036,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101498,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.341663,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.479137,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 958652,
      "relative_activity": 0.881175,
      "balance": 1.479137,
      "dry_up": 1.1445,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.125637,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.399729,
      "from_high_reference": -0.112383,
      "from_low_reference": 1.397596
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 93.531333,
      "fair_value_reference": 46.538782,
      "structural_low": 74.7003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.112654,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.065016,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.332107,
        "worst_return": -0.164114,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.212719,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.132358,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.420554,
        "worst_return": -0.069292,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.529046,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.420186,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.735443,
        "worst_return": 0.185266,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.827755,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.657957,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.056962,
        "worst_return": 0.598548,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.039928,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.069876,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.249665,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.071759,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.205238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.020837,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.142304,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044885,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.063202,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.092269,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.121108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.089641,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.164546,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 922394.3,
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        "relative_strength": 44.636947,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 995957,
        "typical_volume": 955147.85,
        "trend": 88.569,
        "fair_value": 44.221474,
        "relative_strength": 31.402355,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.068958,
        "energy": 54.190321,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 107.79,
        "volume": 1927860,
        "typical_volume": 1024394.0,
        "trend": 90.109667,
        "fair_value": 44.829038,
        "relative_strength": 32.433655,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.443286,
        "energy": 45.615919,
        "activity_lines": [
          111.268,
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          103.445571,
          97.816473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 103.93,
        "volume": 951090,
        "typical_volume": 1043226.9,
        "trend": 91.189667,
        "fair_value": 45.405128,
        "relative_strength": 27.249143,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.916905,
        "energy": 28.37404,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.375333,
          108.956,
          104.080571,
          98.708108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 95.9,
        "volume": 1142919,
        "typical_volume": 1070312.5,
        "trend": 92.173667,
        "fair_value": 45.930449,
        "relative_strength": 15.379367,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.775194,
        "energy": 17.898655,
        "activity_lines": [
          103.259333,
          106.882182,
          103.844571,
          99.012
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 111.68,
        "volume": 958652,
        "typical_volume": 1087924.65,
        "trend": 93.531333,
        "fair_value": 46.538782,
        "relative_strength": 28.303561,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.462196,
        "energy": 20.002076,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.120667,
          107.660364,
          105.035952,
          100.270473
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}