{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fcdec08-d25d-4595-babf-e164bafc6940", "symbol": "688187", "name": "Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.691, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.914, "architecture_energy": 63.525, "architecture_maturity": 9.88, "architecture_confidence": 73.902, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.97, "rotation_up": 8.88, "upward_expansion": 13.36, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 70.09, "downward_expansion": 86.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.360127, 50.056065, 52.105366, 52.759742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.759998, "trend_reference": 53.707478, "distance_from_trend": -0.0735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.168633, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077788, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.951453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.129156, "excess_performance": -0.085953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054011, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129156, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.899717, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38336053, "relative_activity": 0.885064, "balance": 1.899717, "dry_up": 1.043403, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129176, "annualized_volatility": 0.424793, "from_high_reference": -0.248338, "from_low_reference": 0.17932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.707478, "fair_value_reference": 46.168633, "structural_low": 43.615465, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.023383, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.017427, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.207031, "worst_return": -0.084504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005867, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.501539, "worst_return": -0.168332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.12166, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003749, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.375641, "worst_return": -0.24123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -30.880198, "energy": 24.112386, "activity_lines": [ 51.632782, 53.998462, 53.824347, 54.075678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.877964, "volume": 47585516, "typical_volume": 41698570.1, "trend": 53.888357, "fair_value": 46.068316, "relative_strength": -10.429652, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.826522, "energy": 57.43904, "activity_lines": [ 48.56792, 52.076951, 52.985378, 53.485756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.633629, "volume": 36277259, "typical_volume": 42359778.2, "trend": 53.758478, "fair_value": 46.104974, "relative_strength": -7.362261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.416881, "energy": 65.791476, "activity_lines": [ 47.00975, 50.669598, 52.374434, 53.017709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.759998, "volume": 38336053, "typical_volume": 43314453.2, "trend": 53.707478, "fair_value": 46.168633, "relative_strength": -3.951453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.914245, "energy": 63.525294, "activity_lines": [ 47.360127, 50.056065, 52.105366, 52.759742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }