{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fd804e7-23aa-4473-9109-0cd376c4fc61", "symbol": "SPTS", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO SHORT TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.705, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.696, "architecture_energy": 9.563, "architecture_maturity": 28.085, "architecture_confidence": 64.799, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.01, "rotation_up": 21.59, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 34.11, "rotation_down": 34.81, "downward_expansion": 56.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.871379, 28.871051, 28.874747, 28.8837 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.92, "trend_reference": 28.891184, "distance_from_trend": 0.000997, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.556531, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.529019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000286, "excess_performance": -0.125339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8242892, "relative_activity": 1.059157, "balance": 0.962103, "dry_up": 0.724585, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003023, "annualized_volatility": 0.014992, "from_high_reference": -0.004137, "from_low_reference": 0.022682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.891184, "fair_value_reference": 27.556531, "structural_low": 28.776784, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001777, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.017722, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.00339, "worst_return": -0.002783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012225, "worst_return": -0.004749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.006036, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026055, "worst_return": -0.013983, 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28.886012, "fair_value": 27.514686, "relative_strength": -7.336102, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.501282, "energy": 36.860862, "activity_lines": [ 28.849638, 28.862854, 28.872901, 28.883412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.858034, "volume": 3113870, "typical_volume": 7729771.85, "trend": 28.887565, "fair_value": 27.535325, "relative_strength": -7.903121, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.466896, "energy": 36.345246, "activity_lines": [ 28.847401, 28.861681, 28.870784, 28.881607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.92, "volume": 8242892, "typical_volume": 7782504.9, "trend": 28.891184, "fair_value": 27.556531, "relative_strength": -10.529019, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.696286, "energy": 9.562621, "activity_lines": [ 28.871379, 28.871051, 28.874747, 28.8837 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }