{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fdcddf0-fe25-4833-bb67-933bfaf7d9cf", "symbol": "SIMO", "name": "Silicon Motion Technology", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.01, "architecture_energy": 22.693, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.464, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.41, "rotation_up": 22.68, "upward_expansion": 55.42, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 31.41, "downward_expansion": 19.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 263.846318, 278.368881, 267.706574, 238.458216 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 256.12, "trend_reference": 200.432031, "distance_from_trend": 0.27784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.8376, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.819537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 51.542039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.011281, "excess_performance": 0.823827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.27784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.470872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.819537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.685421, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.51542, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.617926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.011281, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.310016, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4963383, "relative_activity": 1.066022, "balance": 1.310016, "dry_up": 1.096528, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207939, "annualized_volatility": 0.801556, "from_high_reference": -0.278535, "from_low_reference": 2.630939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.432031, "fair_value_reference": 90.8376, "structural_low": 104.774158, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041001, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015401, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.803134, "worst_return": -0.117662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002668, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.090405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.779474, "worst_return": -0.207265, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.15905, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.11467, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.042068, "worst_return": -0.283999, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.30068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.577471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.326279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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"energy": 47.582544, "activity_lines": [ 296.985936, 293.058667, 257.862363, 224.949157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 270.394458, "volume": 3403911, "typical_volume": 4151521.3, "trend": 190.314462, "fair_value": 88.290637, "relative_strength": 75.623292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.834423, "energy": 34.49506, "activity_lines": [ 286.006653, 290.060359, 262.835098, 230.504148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 253.126742, "volume": 8758709, "typical_volume": 4499432.25, "trend": 195.644216, "fair_value": 89.541188, "relative_strength": 60.331357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.478687, "energy": 24.861349, "activity_lines": [ 272.689167, 283.733294, 265.43811, 234.556553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 256.12, "volume": 4963383, "typical_volume": 4655984.05, "trend": 200.432031, "fair_value": 90.8376, "relative_strength": 51.542039, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.009813, "energy": 22.692675, "activity_lines": [ 263.846318, 278.368881, 267.706574, 238.458216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }