{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3fde0138-11f4-4d28-b4e4-2a18cc39401b", "symbol": "000058", "name": "Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.014, "architecture_energy": 47.534, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.309, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.41, "rotation_up": 27.16, "upward_expansion": 19.73, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.15, "downward_expansion": 72.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.419333, 6.376909, 6.789523, 7.191693 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.67, "trend_reference": 7.79065, "distance_from_trend": -0.143846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.686534, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.772193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25811, "excess_performance": -0.265509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004442, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25811, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.380912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57413933, "relative_activity": 1.8637, "balance": 0.380912, "dry_up": 1.471172, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072206, "annualized_volatility": 0.256096, "from_high_reference": -0.455947, "from_low_reference": 0.134354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.79065, "fair_value_reference": 7.686534, "structural_low": 5.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.007174, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.020317, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.235075, "worst_return": -0.137085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011216, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.082638, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.546667, "worst_return": -0.18698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.231671, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315676, "worst_return": 0.20113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12426, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073892, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08739, "active": false 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.144721, "energy": 86.719481, "activity_lines": [ 6.186, 6.48372, 7.050672, 7.489016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.0, "volume": 40236860, "typical_volume": 28697407.1, "trend": 7.971603, "fair_value": 7.682945, "relative_strength": -30.839921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.378332, "energy": 71.083519, "activity_lines": [ 6.100667, 6.33955, 6.910613, 7.355063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.65, "volume": 48063076, "typical_volume": 29474456.1, "trend": 7.880627, "fair_value": 7.685628, "relative_strength": -21.613989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.232187, "energy": 63.771334, "activity_lines": [ 6.274, 6.348182, 6.844801, 7.269798 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.67, "volume": 57413933, "typical_volume": 30806426.65, "trend": 7.79065, "fair_value": 7.686534, "relative_strength": -24.772193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.013926, "energy": 47.533535, "activity_lines": [ 6.419333, 6.376909, 6.789523, 7.191693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }